Iron ore majors ramp up supply even as China faces challenges
Iron ore is one of the year’s worst performing major commodities, slumping by almost a quarter as China’s property crisis drags on.
After attempting a comeback of sorts last week iron ore prices fell again today.
Northern China 62% Fe imports tracked by The SteelIndex on Tuesday exchanged hands for $79.40 a tonne, the lowest price for the steelmaking raw material since September 7, 2009.
The price of seaborne iron ore has declined more than 40% this year as continuing worries about the Chinese economy and the flood of new supply dampen enthusiasm for the commodity.
Source: The Steel Index
5 Comments
Steve
I thought it was amazing when the head of Rio’s Iron Ore Group two years ago told me they were going to double their output, and when I asked, “Wouldn’t that push the price down since everyone else is doing the same thing?” his answer was, “There’s a huge capacity in China for everyone’s iron ore…”
BRS
Those companies with considerable economy of scale will still do well. BHP and RIO will still make a good margin on what they mine. The smaller mines and start ups will be the ones who suffer. If they drop out and the big guys are the only ones left they will benefit when the market becomes efficient again.
It always pays to be the big guy.
Analyst
BHP and RIO assumes that the Chinese will let their producers die and then rely on foreign suppliers price fixing for their domestic needs without making a move…………….keep dreaming.
Without mentioning that BHP and RIO ROA is getting really shitty, they have thrown billions of dollars in expansions for a very moderate increase in profit in the last three years. Another year and half and we’ll see the results.
Another analyst
Chinese ain’t stupid. They will not continue producing at 30% higher price and lower quality iron just to remain “self sufficient” when they are anything but self sufficient. They do not have high quality ore, they do not have large enough deposits and they have huge population density.
Brian
North American ore is being priced out of the market. We are seeing evidence of this now with Cliffs restructuring by (trying to) sell off the Canadian mines that produce for offshore clients to a company that produces only for NA based mills. This is where they have a logistical advantage that mitigates somewhat their higher CPT.