Oil sands production hampers Copenhagen Accord emission targets

Environment Canada predicts that emissions from oil sands production, without government intervention, is going to increase by 18% over the next decade.

Canada Emissions Trends, a report on greenhouse gas emissions and how various sectors of Canada’s economy are faring, was released quietly last month.

In December 2009 the federal government signed the Copenhagen Accord committing Canada to reducing its greenhouse emissions to 607 Megatonnes in 2020, or 17 per cent below 2005 levels. The report says that Canada’s total GHG emissions were 731 Mt in 2005, representing about two per cent of overall global GHG emissions.

The report finds that oil sands emissions will grow substantially over the next decade.

“Absent further government action, emissions from upstream oil and gas production, including pipelines but excluding refining and upgrading, are estimated to grow from 120 Mt in 2005 to 142 Mt in 2020,” the report notes.

“This increase is primarily driven by the growth in bitumen production, where emissions are expected to increase from 16 Mt in 2005 to about 52 Mt by 2020.”

Emissions from coal used for electricity generation show a sharp drop from 78 Mt in 2010 to 55 Mt in 2020. The change is due to a tighter emission regulations and shift from coal to cleaner forms of energy, like hydropower and renewables.

The report notes that electricity generation from natural gas, a relatively cleaner form of energy production, is expected to double from 2005 to 2020.

The report lauds the action taken so far, but a significant gap remains if Canada is going to reach its targets:

“Taken together, the existing measures of the federal and provincial governments are having a significant impact on emissions over the next decade. These existing measures are expected to reduce GHG emissions by 65 Mt by 2020 relative to the scenario with no government actions, reducing annual emissions in 2020 from 850 Mt to 785 Mt. Thus, currently announced government measures will generate about one quarter of the reductions in emissions by 2020 that are needed to reach Canada’s Copenhagen accord target of 607 Mt.”