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A new analysis by Roskill forecasts a recovery of the titanium market aided by a gradual resumption of activities in the aerospace sector.
Considered a strategic raw material, around half of all titanium demand comes from high-value aerospace applications. Aside from its use in key industries such as commercial airlines, the metal is required by military programs such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
According to the market researcher, as the travel industry starts recovering in the latter stages of 2021, the focus in the short-medium term will be on fleet renewal because last year, 3,000 planes were retired and have to be replaced.
Demand from Asia is expected to grow because the Civil Aviation Administration of China has plans to build 215 new airports by 2035, purchasing a reported 8,600 new aircraft
“Roskill predicts total passenger numbers will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 and demand for new aircraft will follow,” the review states. “Longer term, Roskill believes demand from the aerospace sector will continue to rise 3-5% per year, driven by global population and income growth, albeit below the pre-covid projections.”
In particular, the analyst sees demand from Asia growing because the Civil Aviation Administration of China has outlined plans to build 215 new airports by 2035, purchasing a reported 8,600 new aircraft worth $1.4 trillion – and $1.7 trillion worth of commercial aviation services in the process.
“A growing middle class and increased consumer spending are expected to drive China’s passenger growth of 5.5% per year over the next 20 years. Roskill believes this growth trend could be even faster, but a rise in ticket prices and any reintroduction of travel restrictions could discourage this trend,” the report reads.
Southeast Asia is also expected to aid in the recovery of the aerospace sector – and therefore of the titanium market – as the subcontinent is expected to require 4,400 new airplanes over the next 20 years.
Citing Boeing’s commercial market outlook to 2039, Roskill says Southeast Asia is expected to be the fifth largest aviation market by 2039 and the vast domestic and regional air-travel network in place will enable a strong post-pandemic recovery.
