CHARTS: The coming critical minerals trade war is BRICS short of a load
"While a large number of countries around the world continue to talk about securing raw material supply, China is actually doing something about it."
Gold prices fell sharply on Monday following reports of de-escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East, denting the safe haven metal’s appeal.
Spot gold tumbled about 3% to $2,627.01 an ounce by 12:20 p.m. ET, breaking a five-session rally to its highest in nearly three weeks. US gold futures were down 2.9% at $2,634.40 an ounce in New York.
Gold extended losses after Axios reported that Israel and Lebanon have accepted the terms of a ceasefire agreement, though the parties have yet to make an announcement.
Another factor in bullion’s decline was Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, a choice that many see would inject more stability into the US economy and financial markets.
The Bessent news is a possible driver of gold’s price drop on Monday, along with profit taking following last week’s rally, according to UBS Group commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
“Some market participants see him as less negative for a trade war, considering his comments on a phased approach for implementing tariffs,” Staunovo said.
Gold prices were primed for a sell-off on buying exhaustion after last week’s rally. Scott Bessent’s appointment further took away some of the risk premium associated with the US, echoed TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali.
Investors are now focused on the outlook for monetary policy, after a report showed US business activity expanding at the fastest pace since April 2022. Swaps traders now see a less-than-even chance the Fed will cuts rates next month.
“I still anticipate a 25 bps rate cut in December, but recent Fed speakers have taken on a more cautious tone heading into 2025, which could pose a bit of a headwind for gold,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
Gold has still climbed roughly 30% this year, supported by central bank purchases and the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts. Haven buying has also been a feature on an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Most banks remain positive on the outlook, with Goldman Sachs and UBS seeing further gains in 2025.
(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)
