Gold price treads down as US CPI data bolsters case for ending rate hikes

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Gold prices treaded down on Wednesday in a relatively choppy trading session after US inflation readings came in mostly as expected, reinforcing bets for a pause in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes.

Spot gold was down 0.5% to $2,023.28 per ounce by 11:45 a.m. EDT, having risen to $2,047.89 earlier in the day. US gold futures also declined 0.5% to $2,031.40 per ounce.

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Meanwhile, both the US dollar and Treasury yields fell after the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month, in line with estimates.

However, underlying inflation remained strong. In the 12 months through April, the core CPI gained 5.5% year-on-year after advancing by 5.6% in March.

The data disrupted the modest momentum that had been building for an 11th straight interest rate hike in June, with the bulk of futures tied to the Fed’s rate betting on a pause.

“Shorter-term futures traders took some profits on the surge and that backed the price off, but the marketplace realized that the CPI data is not all that bullish for gold,” Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, told Reuters.

Gold may struggle in the short term with core inflation well above the Fed’s target, “but for now the positive correlation to short-end rate futures will dictate the direction,” added Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Some analysts have said gold could attempt another run to record highs, given persistent economic worries, including a potential US debt ceiling default.

(With files from Reuters)