Gold price closing in on record high as Fed issues recession warning

Gold set a new one-year high on Thursday as more weak US economic readings bolstered bets for a pause in interest rate hikes, with prospects of a mild recession also sending investors scurrying for safe haven.

Spot gold was up 1.2% to $2,037.68 per ounce by 10:45 a.m. EDT, its highest since March 2022 and about $35 off record highs. US gold futures gained 1.6% to $2,057.10 per ounce in New York.

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Gold’s surge comes after Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday indicated that several policymakers considered pausing rate increases and projected that recent banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession this year.

Treasury yields slipped while the US dollar slid after data showed a moderation in the rise in producer prices last month and an uptick in jobless claims, suggesting the Fed’s aggressive tightening over the past year was indeed taking a toll on the economy.

Further, US consumer prices barely rose in March as the cost of gasoline declined, but stubbornly high rents kept underlying inflation pressures simmering.

“That’s an underlying positive environment for gold where the Fed is done with their interest rate hike cycle, yet inflation overall remains higher than they would like,” David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, told Reuters.

But while gold is likely to remain bid with traders nervous about an economic recession and an extension of the banking crisis, it is likely to remain prone to profit taking on the highs, said independent analyst Ross Norman.

(With files from Reuters)