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A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
Gold jumped to a new all-time high on Friday after three straight weeks of gains on bets that US interest rates could soon be cut — and safe haven buying amid turmoil in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Gold futures trading in New York shot up 1.6% on Friday closing at $2,089.70 per ounce, surpassing the previous high set on August 6, 2020. Earlier on Friday, the precious metal hit an intra-day high of $2,095.70.
“Gold has had a Santa Claus rally and I expect that to continue until the end of this year. As we see inflation attenuate, it speeds up (the) timeline for policymakers to lower rates, which is good for gold,” said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins, in an interview with Reuters.
“Gold will pull back if there is a hawkish push back. But, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that gold re-tests record highs,” he added.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said earlier that he believes US inflation is “on track” to reaching the Fed’s 2% target, meaning further rate hikes would no longer be required.
Data on Thursday showed US consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years.
[Click here for an interactive chart of gold prices]
Traders are currently pricing in a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.
But, “prices may have entered overbought territory and gold has been known to price in monetary policy expectations prematurely over the past two years,” Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said in a note.
Earlier this week, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, published its outlook for gold, stating that prices will be kept at $1,900-$2,000/oz in the coming months.
(With files from Reuters)
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