Hedge funds slash bullish wagers on gold over Trump election win
Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted net-long positions by 11% to 197,362 as of Nov. 12, the lowest in 14 weeks.
According to latest Gallup Poll Social Series (GPSS) monitoring public opinion on economy and finance, the number of Americans naming gold as the “best long-term investment” nearly doubled this year, rising from 15% in 2022 to 26%, the highest proportion in 11 years.
Bullion is now the second most popular long-term investment behind real estate, which is chosen by 34% of the US population, down from a record-high 45% last year as a result of high interest rates cooling the housing market (see chart below).
Gold’s elevated status echoes the latest data from the World Gold Council on US bar and coin investment. In its latest issue of Gold Demand Trends, the Council reported that US investors bought 36 tonnes of gold bars and coins in Q1 this year, up sharply on the previous quarter.
Commenting on this investment trend, WGC Senior Markets Analyst Louise Street said: “Our own research has shown a keen recognition of gold’s long-term value proposition and safe haven attributes in the US, with around two thirds of investors agreeing that ‘gold is a good safeguard against periods of political and economic uncertainty’ and that ‘the price of gold increases over time’.
“Unsurprisingly, this conviction increases among those who have invested in gold: 87% of gold investors in the US agree that it holds its value over the long term.”
Street also noted that gold’s recent performance may have helped to bump it up the rankings.
“It’s interesting to note that the respondents who already own stocks have the lowest conviction in stocks than they’ve had since 2012: only 25% of stock owners view stocks at the best long-term investment. The same number (24%) think gold is better up to the task. This could be due to the relative performance of each over the past 12-18 months, with gold outshining the gloomy performance of US stocks,” she said
And as US consumers raise their longer-term inflation expectations, gold’s historical performance as an inflation hedge may also be at play, Street added.
“According to the Gallup poll, conviction in savings accounts/cash deposits as a good long-term investment increased only slightly this year, even with cash deposit rates reaching 5%. But these rates are still quite poor in real terms, and anyone expecting persistent inflation may be tempted more by the long-term investment proposition of gold than that of savings accounts.”
“Our research shows that gold’s potential to ‘protect against inflation/currency fluctuations’ is well recognized among gold investors,” she concluded.
