Get ready for more strikes in Chile, risk analysis firm says

Codelco managed to quickly settle a 24-hour strike that flared up earlier this month, but more labour unrest may be on the way in Chile, according to risk analysis firm Exclusive Analysis.

The firm says the threat of industrial action has risen in recent months and there is a significant risk of strikes and potentially-violent pickets at Codelco mines over the next 12 months.

Says Carlos Caicedo, Head of Latin America Forecasting:

“Recent strikes suggest workers are better organised than previously, and capable of sustaining action for long enough to degrade output. In late 2010, workers at Collahuasi, owned by Xstrata and Anglo-American, staged a 33-day stoppage, one of the longest at a privately-owned Chilean mine. Collahuasi accounts for 8% of Chilean copper production and the strike caused copper prices to increase.”

Exclusive Analysis points to Codelco’s massive Chuquicamata mine as as the next flashpoint. The firm says Codelco has a $1.9 billion plan to shift operations from an open pit to underground, a move that is expected to shed jobs. Industrial tension in Chile is being exacerbated by the high price of copper, with workers pressing for a greater share of company profits; rising unemployment is also a factor.  If workers at Chuquicamata go on strike, Exclusive Analysis predicts copper prices could rise by between 3 and 5%. Codelco Norte, which includes the Chuquicamata mine, produced 53% of Codelco’s total copper production in 2010, and nearly 17% of Chile’s total copper.