Fort Knox explainer: Why verifying the US gold reserves matters
US gold reserves have been getting more attention than they have in decades as renewed skepticism about the actual quantity of gold stored within its vaults has driven President Donald Trump and the head of Department of Government Efficiency, Elon Musk, to announce a visit to the Fort Knox Bullion Depository and even potentially live-streaming the event.
“We’re going to take a look and if there’s 27 tons of gold, we’ll be very happy,” Trump told the audience. “I don’t know how the [expletive] we’re going to measure it, but that’s okay. We want to see lots of nice, beautiful, shiny gold in Fort Knox.”
Given the pivotal role gold plays in both historical and modern financial systems, proving that Fort Knox holds the expected 147.3 million ounces (worth about $428 billion at today’s prices) is essential. The implications of a shortfall could be profound, triggering market instability, devaluing the US dollar, and causing gold prices to skyrocket.
Market confidence and stability
The perception that Fort Knox houses one of the largest gold reserves in the world helps underpin confidence in the US financial system. If a full audit were to reveal that the reserves are lower than reported, it could send shockwaves through global markets, prompting a selloff of US assets and creating a ripple effect across international markets.
The last full audit of the depository was in 1953. In 1974, journalists and Congress members took a brief tour, often mistaken for an inspection. Since then, only routine vault seal checks have occurred, with access limited to Treasury officials like Steve Mnuchin in 2017.
Impact on the US dollar
Although the US dollar is no longer backed by gold, the presence of a substantial gold reserve provides an implicit assurance of stability. If Fort Knox were found to contain less gold than expected, confidence in the dollar could erode, leading to depreciation. This decline would make US imports more expensive, contributing to inflation, while making exports more competitive.
While some policymakers, such as Trump’s nominee for the Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, have suggested that selling US gold reserves could weaken the dollar intentionally to promote trade advantages, an uncontrolled drop in confidence would be a far riskier outcome.
Gold prices and central banks
Doubts about US reserves could fuel increased demand from investors and central banks, potentially sending prices soaring.
Emerging markets, which have been stockpiling gold in recent years, would likely accelerate their acquisitions, exacerbating price spikes. Higher gold prices could benefit existing gold holders, but might also make the metal less accessible for those seeking to hedge against economic uncertainty.
Geopolitics
Another effect of finding less gold than expected would be the weakening of the US global standing and bargaining power. Countries such as China and Russia, which have been actively increasing their gold reserves, might capitalize on the situation to promote alternative financial systems less reliant on US influence.
Need for transparency
The lack of a comprehensive audit since 1953, combined with restricted access to the facility, has fuelled decades of conspiracy theories. Some believe the gold remains untouched in vaults, while others suspect secret sales or fake bars.
High-profile figures like Elon Musk and Senator Rand Paul have amplified calls for transparency, arguing that the American public deserves proof that their national assets remain intact.
A full, independent audit — potentially even a live-streamed verification — would dispel doubts and reinforce trust in US financial institutions.
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20 Comments
Roger Dale Kunz
It’s not only how much gold there is, but also who actually owns it, and how much is free of incumbrancers.
BARNEY BIGGS
Bang on as it is speculated that much of the gold in the Ft. does not belong to the US but has been stored for many many years by other countries. 4 years ago China bought 42 tons of gold on the shanghai exchange and many other countries are also buying big time. The Shanghai exchange has become a major gold exchange apart from London.
Anthony Duffy
A full independent audit is essential to restore some minimum level of trust and faith in US Dollar . Also some minimum level of gold backing for all notes and coins issued by US Government ( Fed)Treasury) and also treasury notes , bills and other long dated IOU’s is essential to re engender confidence in the $36 trillion already issued . At least 10% backing ie $3.6 trillion of gold needs to be held . Also it is necessary to re establish a limit determined by gold holdings to prevent US Government incurring more debt . The time for balanced budgets and balance of payments equilibrium has returned . Trump understands this . A slash-hook needs to be taken to Government waste and over – expenditure. NATO needs to be financed on an equitable basis by member States . Again Trump understands this . Times have changed . “The West” is on the backdoor now ..China + Russia and BRICS + are in the ascendency . The writing is on the wall .
Josef Block
Most likely outcome is all the gold is there and Trump says something to spook globabl markets. He could do this either intentionally or unintenitionally with my money on the former as it would advance his agenda claiming the previous administration is culpable. In any case, how would they be able to confirm the presence of the gold with Trump being the only person trusted to say yay or nay? Think about what would be invoved in providing proof in a private transaction thay 2700 tons of gold is present with experts on both sides of the transaction. Now think about trying convincing someone with no expertise and who may have a motive to claim the quantity of gold is present.
Paul Farrell
To me this seems staged, the risks are too great. The gold will be shown to be there (no matter who actually owns it). My question is what will happen to the gold price and the strength of the dollar in this case? Effectively nothing will have changed so why do it other than quantifying it as an asset, a devaluation of the dollar or a return to a pseudo gold standard.
Cornelius Howard
This could be a setup! Did the U.S. withhold 300 or 600 million from Russia. Some people just can’t be trusted.
Anne Laszlok
Be Careful! Trump is ONLY pretending Concern, in Actuality they are Stealing it behind America’s back. Then he’s going to say ” See, I Told you we Had to LOOK”!!!
Don
Really???
Do you often make up these conspiracy theories?
Bob Arsenault
I want to see surveillance of Ft Knox from the time this attention began u til the doors are opened to the citizens of the US.
I do not trust our gov’t at all. It would not surprise me to learn much of our gold has been used for various bargaining over the years. The gov’t may try to replace the gold bars prior to the inspection with fraudulent bars to appear normal.
I want an inventory AND assay of all the gold. Weight and purity are equally important.
Rhea Crosley
We use to tell our kids and each other. “What you don’t inspect you can’t expect.”
Dan of Romero Crater
Rumor has it that the Clintons stole it
Marc J Gerstein
Its useless
400 billion dollars of gold is nothing its a political play
There are 1000 of tons of gold in the federal reserve bank of NY located in Manhattan
Much of the that was in ft Knox was transferred there
That is the world gold the United States has full control over it
Ft know is a dead story
The gold in NYC is underground deeply underground
This ft knox thing means absolutely nothing
It’s a political play
Dominic Cicio
Great letter from Sen Rand Paul. I hope he accompanies Trump & Musk when they visit.
It is important to verify that the gold is still there.
Gyles Griffin
A true and independent audit is essential to restore confidence in the US gold reserve.
However one must wonder at the wisdom of a Trump/Musk audit in that they are far from independent and given that the credibility of both, based on past performance, is at about zero.
Would any bank in its right mind take the word of Trump in any matter concerning fiscal proprietary when we look at his court cases and his various pronouncements. Try again.
Ralph
“27 Tons”?! Fort Knox should hold around 5000 metric Tonnes…
Tom
There is far more than 27 tons there. Trump probably heard the number 27 from someone and just repeated it as fact.
Christine Smothered
If anyone thinks for one minute it will be lived streamed or open to citizens or any government official think again. It’s Fort Knox for a reason. Stop being so gullible folks. Do some research.
Shelton Bridges
Why not independent audits every year by the top auditing firms in the US? Companies are required why not the US gold in Ft Knox??
B Calder
If Trump went to an underground bunker in say area 51 and met an extra terrestrial he would announce the Sargent Shults reply. Same goes for any discrepancy found at Fort Knox
Craig A.
Phony bags of nickel, actually containing stones, were found at the LME two years ago. I’d like to see all of the gold in Ft Knox and every Federal institution weighed and inspected every few years. Every single oz! I have zero confidence in the brokers, traders and players in the metals industry. There’s rampant speculation due to the extraordinary leverage allowed – which is in itself another problem. We’ve all seen dozens of major scandals and blow-ups over the last 40 years (Madoff, Enron, Purdue and Sackler, 1MDB, etc etc – I have no reason to believe there aren’t a few scandals to be found here. And out of the major accounting firms – there are one or two that are completely for sale. We need proof of what belongs to the taxpayers.