First Quantum cuts guidance on Zambia sequencing

First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM) has cut its copper guidance by 3.5% at the midpoint, citing Zambian mine sequencing, while politics has kept Cobre Panama idle.

The Toronto-headquartered company now expects production of 380,000–440,000 tonnes copper this year, down from earlier estimates of 400,000–450,000 tonnes. At Kansanshi in Zambia, the initial ramp-up of the S3 expansion from mid-year will rely on low-grade stockpiles before higher-grade ore is available in 2027.

At Sentinel, the updated mine plan prioritizes the accelerated mining of lower-grade oxidized and transitional ore in Stages 3 and 4, combined with increased waste stripping, to secure long-term ore supply and reduce future operational risks.

CEO Tristan Pascall said Wednesday the company was resilient despite these headwinds.

“Our focus remains on advancing key projects while strengthening our balance sheet to support sustainable growth,” he said in a release.

First Quantum Minerals shares trading in Toronto fell as much as 4.3% on the news Thursday morning before closing at C$18.73, down 3.8%. The stock has ranged between C$10.91 and C$21.45 over the past 12 months and it has a market capitalization of C$15.6 billion.

Panama impasse

Challenges persist at Cobre Panama, where production remains halted. The mine holds 121,000 dry tonnes of copper concentrate awaiting shipment as First Quantum awaits approval from Panamanian authorities for a so-called preservation and safe management plan.

This month, authorities kicked off a public consultation on an environmental audit of Cobre Panama. President José Raúl Mulino, who was elected last May, has criticized his predecessor for failing to resolve the issue, and committed to tackling it with what he described as “credibility and national acceptance.” Mulino announced the public consultation plan last year.

On Jan. 12, government ministers inspected the site and called for the export of stored ammonium nitrate, citing safety concerns over its long-term storage at the Punta Rincón port, the company said.

Growth investment

The $1.25 billion Kansanshi S3 expansion, now 62% complete, aims to enhance processing capacity by 25 million tonnes per year. Initial feed will rely on low-grade stockpiles, with higher-grade ore expected to follow in 2027, according to company documents.

The Sentinel open-pit’s revised mine plan targets oxidized and transitional ore in stages three and four, combined with an accelerated waste stripping program to secure long-term ore supply.

Rising labour and power costs in Zambia are adding pressure, with 2025 capital expenditures now expected to reach $1.3–$1.45 billion, an increase of $100 million due to deferred 2024 spending and inflation.

Strong year

Last year, the company’s operations exceeded expectations, with total copper production reaching 431,000 tonnes, beating the 400,000–420,000-tonne guidance range. Kansanshi contributed 171,000 tonnes, a 36,000-tonne increase from 2023, driven by higher grades and improved grade control.

Sentinel produced 231,000 tonnes, benefiting from increased throughput and improved ore availability.

Gold production for the year is now forecasted at 135,000–155,000 oz., up from earlier guidance, as Kansanshi continues to mine higher-grade zones.

Enterprise, the company’s nickel operation in Zambia, achieved commercial production in mid-last year and is ramping up, with the full-year nickel guidance set at 15,000–25,000 tonnes.

• A previous version of this article stated the S3 expansion was delayed since December, when, in fact, the company has guided for a mid-year start-up. We apologize for the error.