At its centre will be a shift of emphasis away from trade with the advanced nations, whose prospects are bound to subside towards their level of economic growth.
There appears to be little or nothing in the monetarists’ handbook to enable them to assess the risk of a loss of confidence in the purchasing power of a paper currency.
Statistics have become very misleading: in particular we are being badly misled into believing that the US is teetering on the edge of price deflation.
Gold and silver rallied strongly last Friday and into Monday’s overnight trading (UK time) before spending the rest of the week drifting lower from initial highs to consolidate above notional support at $1200 and $17 respectively.
Financial markets are becoming aware that the US economy is stalling, so investors increasingly take the view that with demand likely to stagnate or even fall, prices for goods and services will soften.
The reason this matters is unemployment is one of the three key variables macroeconomists use to formulate policy, the other two being GDP and the rate of price inflation.
Though the Fed would deny it, it is clear from the minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that a rise in interest rates has been put off indefinitely.
