Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
The third-lowest platinum mining output this century can’t keep up with rising investment demand, jewelry and a sustained traditional car market using catalytic converters, according to an industry group.
A 1-million-oz. deficit is forecast this year, up from 731,000 oz. in 2023, as supply edges 1% lower to nearly 7.1 million oz. while demand is expected to grow 3% – the largest gain in five years – to 8.1 million oz., the World Platinum Investment Council says in a new report released on Tuesday.
The council, which represents miners of platinum group metals, forecasts investor demand – driven by exchange traded funds (ETFs) and metal bar and coin sales in China – to rise 15% to 517,000 oz. this year.
Jewelry use is to increase by 7% while mining production is to ease by 1%. Automotive and industrial demand are each predicted to increase 1%, but their levels are already high, the council’s research director, Edward Sterck, told The Northern Miner by phone.
“Automotive demand is at a seven-year high and very much the theme there is higher-for-longer demand for internal combustion engine-containing vehicles,” Sterck said from London where the council is based. “If you exclude the Covid-impacted 2020, and 2014 which was impacted by strikes, it’s actually the weakest year for mine supply since 2000.”
Platinum demand can act as a kind of bellwether for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), which don’t use catalytic converters to reduce emissions. Leading automakers such as Ford, Toyota and Stellantis have scaled back EV production amid slower than expected sales although hybrids are maintaining growth as vehicle producers lean on them to hit emissions targets. Hybrid autos require more platinum proportionally than traditional cars because their systems operate at lower temperatures, Sterck said.
The council – funded by South African platinum miners Anglo American (LSE: AAL), Northam Platinum, Sedibelo Platinum Mines, Impala Platinum Holdings (JSE: IMP), and Tharisa (JSE: THA) – sees more cost-driven restructuring in South Africa, the leading platinum producer. Production there this year is expected to fall 2% year-on-year to around 3.9 million ounces. With declines in Russian output, global production this year is seen falling 2% to 5.5 million oz., a four-year low, the council said.
Miners have cut back on their capital spending programs substantially and shed about 10,000 jobs, about 6% of the workforce, through the usual legal processes and avoiding labour unrest, Sterck said.
“They’re just effectively trying to improve their labour productivity and drive down their operating costs,” he said. “We’re not expecting any dramatic production cuts as a result of the low palladium and rhodium prices, but the cutback in capex and headcount means you’re probably going to see a gradual erosion of supply going forwards.”
The price of platinum has fallen about 4% this year to about $950 per oz. on Tuesday. Rhodium increased 9.2% this year to $4,750 per ounce.
Global recycling is expected to reach nearly 1.6 million oz. this year, a 2% year-on-year increase. The spent autocatalyst market should show signs of stabilizing after two years of declines, the council said. Above-ground stockpiles are forecast to drop for the second year in a row, with one-quarter plunge to a four-year low of 3 million oz., just over four months’ worth of demand cover.
Industrial demand is forecast to reach 2.4 million oz. in 2024, marking a 1% year-on-year increase over the elevated levels of 2023. It offsets a sharp decline in platinum chemical offtake, which dropped by nearly half year-on-year to 122,000 oz. in the second quarter, primarily due to a slowdown in China’s petrochemical industry. Chemical demand is expected to decrease by 31% to 542,000 ounces.
The quarterly report of the council marked the first time it included demand figures from Chinese investors in bars and coins of more than 500 grams. They’re expected to achieve 40% year-on-year growth for full-year 2024 to 188,000 ounces. However, bar and coin investment fell in Japan and in North America.
“We’ve seen, obviously, a lot of demand for gold investment product in China,” Sterck said. “That’s flowing through to platinum investment demand, and that’s grown from effectively from zero five years ago.”
During the second quarter, investment demand surged to its highest level since 2020’s third-quarter, driven by a substantial inflow of 444,000 oz. into platinum ETFs. These included the London-based Wisdom Tree Physical Platinum fund with $629 million under management, and the iShares Physical Platinum fund with $165.9 million.
Historically high gold prices are helping platinum jewelry demand grow to a forecast 2 million oz. this year. India shows strong 28% growth, Japan is forecast to rise by 8% while Europe and North America are expected to reach record high increases of 4% and 3%, respectively. China is set to improve by 3%, reversing a decline in demand that has persisted since 2013, the council said.
The metal’s use is expanding in transportation with the mandated spread of hydrogen fuel cells and charging stations in China and Europe. But its appeal may be limited in North America to long-distance trucking where battery-powered 18-wheelers are impractical on cross-continental routes, Sterck said.
“The challenge is the refueling infrastructure,” he said. “You can’t, with current battery technology, economically electrify coast-to-coast truck transportation because you’re giving up a third of your payload to your battery weight, you’ve got to stop for six hours charging every day, plus arguably in the Midwest, for example, the grids can’t supply that megawatt charging per vehicle requirements.
“So, hydrogen actually is a potential solution to that, and it’s one that’s probably lower cost and easier to implement, but that’s the main scenario where it makes sense in North America.”
