Today marks the beginning of Diwali festival in India and the next stage in gold’s seasonal patterns. The five day “Festival of Lights” is a major Hindu holiday and involves the lighting of small clay lamps (diyas) filled with oil to signify the triumph of good over evil. During Diwali, lights illuminate every corner of India and fireworks light up the skies.
Activities during these five days include worship, many feasts, spending time with families and exchanging gifts. The latter is a big driver of gold demand.
Traditionally, Indians are very sensitive to fluctuating gold prices but it appears they are adjusting to the concept of higher gold prices. Last year, China surged ahead of India in terms of jewelry demand until Diwali reignited retail demand in India.
It also didn’t hurt that India’s central bank bought 200 tons of gold around $1,000 an ounce. This put a floor under gold and changed the mentality of retail buyers who had been waiting for a pullback below $1,000. In fact as of June 2010, Indian jewelry demand was only off 2 percent on a year-over-year basis despite gold reaching new record highs. A report from the Bombay Bullion Association says that Indian gold imports rose to 43 tons, an 18 percent increase from the same time last year.
India isn’t the only place that jewelry demand is picking up. According to the World Gold Council’s most recent Gold Demand Trends report, jewelry demand experienced its smallest decline since early 2008 during the second quarter of this year.
Gold as an investment has been grabbing headlines and is certainly a key factor in overall demand. However, demand for gold jewelry is still the king. In 2009, retail investment and ETFs totaled 1,348 tons of gold—39 percent of total demand. However, jewelry demand, which was at its lowest level in 10 years, totaled 1,759 tons—51 percent of total demand.
This is important because as retail buyers of gold grow more accustomed to gold’s current price levels, demand should increase and provide a tailwind for higher prices.
With the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its second quantitative easing (QE2) initiative this week, it’s a good time to update you on some data I’ve shared with you several times. This chart shows gold’s appreciation in major currencies since 1999. As you can see, currency devaluation has a dramatic effect on gold’s performance in that particular currency.
The past few months have been very rough for the dollar.
Since June 1 through earlier today, gold prices have jumped 1.2 percent in Japanese yen terms and 2.6 percent in British pound terms. Gold prices in euro terms have actually dropped 1 percent during that time period.
In dollar terms, it’s a much different story. Gold prices in U.S. dollars have jumped 13.4 percent since June 1. Most of this appreciation came after the Federal Reserve announced its intention for a second round of quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve’s announcement this week was both larger ($600 billion) and longer (until June 2011) than many had anticipated.
The long-term depreciation effect this plan will have on the dollar could be a catalyst for higher gold prices all the way into next summer.
Another upside is a weaker dollar makes high-quality American products more attractive to export. We can expect rising exports over the next six months to help our unemployment numbers and boost our economy.
I wish all a Happy Diwali and the blessings of fortune, luck, riches and generosity.
P.S. If you didn’t get a chance to listen to Ian McAvity’s webcast presentation this week you missed a great one but don’t worry, a replay will be available on demand early next week.
Index Summary
Domestic Equity Market
The figure shows the performance of each sector in the S&P 500 Index for the week. All ten sectors were up but the best-performing sector was financials, up 6.9 percent. Energy and materials were other top-performers. The three worst-performing sectors were healthcare, utilities and consumer staples.
Janus Capital Group was the best-performing stock within the financials sector, rising 16 percent. Rounding out the top five were Legg Mason Inc., Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo and Principal Financial Group.
Weaknesses
Threats
U.S. Government Securities Savings Fund – UGSXX • U.S. Treasury Securities Cash Fund – USTXX
Near-Term Tax Free Fund – NEARX • Tax Free Fund – USUTX
The Economy and Bond Market
The Federal Reserve implemented phase two of its quantitative easing program this week, announcing an additional $600 billion of Treasury bond purchases. The surprise to the market is what the Federal Reserve will be buying. The Fed is focusing its purchases primarily in the 2 to 10-year Treasury range and less on the long end of the market. The bond market reacted accordingly with 5 to 10-year Treasuries rallying as yields fell as much as 12 basis points. Meanwhile the 30-year bond sold off, pushing yields up by 14 basis points.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
World Precious Minerals Fund – UNWPX • Gold and Precious Metals Fund – USERX
For the week, spot gold closed at $1,393.65 per ounce, up $34.25, or 2.52 percent for the week. Gold equities, as measured by the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, rose 5.19 percent. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index fell 0.86 percent for the week.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Global Resources Fund – PSPFX • Global MegaTrends Fund – MEGAX
Energy and Natural Resources Market
This chart shows a sharp rise in the supertanker rate for oil shipments in the Persian Gulf. A report from Bloomberg this week said that the Persian Gulf, which is the world’s largest crude-oil loading region, doesn’t have enough of the supertankers to meet demand. Just a week ago there was a 20 percent surplus of these ships, but Bloomberg’s survey this week showed a 1 percent shortage. This region feeds 20 percent of the world’s crude oil demand, so a shortage of ships means that global demand for oil is picking up.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
China Region Opportunity Fund – USCOX • Eastern European Fund – EUROX
Global Emerging Markets Fund – GEMFX
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Leaders and Laggards
The tables show the performance of major equity and commodity market benchmarks of our family of funds.
Index | Close | Weekly Change($) |
Weekly Change(%) |
---|---|---|---|
S&P Basic Materials | 224.81 | +9.31 | +4.32% |
S&P Energy | 465.12 | +22.53 | +5.09% |
Hang Seng Composite Index | 3,497.47 | +224.80 | +6.87% |
Gold Futures | 1,392.80 | +35.20 | +2.59% |
XAU | 214.91 | +10.61 | +5.19% |
Russell 2000 | 736.59 | +33.24 | +4.73% |
S&P BARRA Value | 571.13 | +20.76 | +3.77% |
S&P 500 | 1,225.85 | +42.59 | +3.60% |
DJIA | 11,444.08 | +325.59 | +2.93% |
Oil Futures | 87.09 | +5.66 | +6.95% |
S&P BARRA Growth | 646.97 | +21.48 | +3.43% |
Nasdaq | 2,578.98 | +71.57 | +2.85% |
Korean KOSPI Index | 1,938.96 | +56.01 | +2.97% |
S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Index | 413.80 | +9.76 | +2.42% |
Natural Gas Futures | 3.94 | -0.10 | -2.35% |
10-Yr Treasury Bond | 2.54 | -0.08 | -2.91% |
Index | Close | Monthly Change($) |
Monthly Change(%) |
---|---|---|---|
Oil Futures | 87.09 | +3.86 | +4.64% |
XAU | 214.91 | +8.12 | +3.93% |
Russell 2000 | 736.59 | +51.26 | +7.48% |
S&P Energy | 465.12 | +31.81 | +7.34% |
Nasdaq | 2,578.98 | +198.32 | +8.33% |
Gold Futures | 1,392.80 | +45.10 | +3.35% |
S&P Basic Materials | 224.81 | +15.87 | +7.60% |
S&P BARRA Growth | 646.97 | +43.14 | +7.14% |
Korean KOSPI Index | 1,938.96 | +35.01 | +1.84% |
S&P 500 | 1,225.85 | +65.88 | +5.68% |
DJIA | 11,444.08 | +476.43 | +4.34% |
S&P BARRA Value | 571.13 | +23.08 | +4.21% |
S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Index | 413.80 | +4.31 | +1.05% |
Natural Gas Futures | 3.94 | +0.08 | +2.02% |
10-Yr Treasury Bond | 2.54 | +0.18 | +7.46% |
Hang Seng Composite Index | 3,497.47 | -332.01 | -14.83% |
Index | Close | Quarterly Change($) |
Quarterly Change(%) |
---|---|---|---|
XAU | 214.91 | +41.11 | +23.65% |
S&P Basic Materials | 224.81 | +27.31 | +13.83% |
Hang Seng Composite Index | 3,497.47 | +477.62 | +15.82% |
S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Index | 413.80 | +58.97 | +16.62% |
Gold Futures | 1,392.80 | +193.50 | +16.13% |
Russell 2000 | 736.59 | +81.52 | +12.44% |
Korean KOSPI Index | 1,938.96 | +155.10 | +8.69% |
S&P Energy | 465.12 | +44.31 | +10.53% |
Nasdaq | 2,578.98 | +285.92 | +12.47% |
Oil Futures | 87.09 | +5.08 | +6.19% |
S&P BARRA Growth | 646.97 | +65.31 | +11.23% |
S&P 500 | 1,225.85 | +100.04 | +8.89% |
DJIA | 11,444.08 | +769.10 | +7.20% |
S&P BARRA Value | 571.13 | +35.23 | +6.57% |
Natural Gas Futures | 3.94 | -0.66 | -14.25% |
10-Yr Treasury Bond | 2.54 | -0.36 | -12.46% |
Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.
An investment in a money market fund is neither insured nor guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio.
The Eastern European Fund invests more than 25 percent of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries. The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile.
Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.
Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5 percent to 10 percent of your portfolio in these sectors. Investing in real estate securities involves risks including the potential loss of principal resulting from changes in property value, interest rates, taxes and changes in regulatory requirements.
Tax-exempt income is federal income tax free. A portion of this income may be subject to state and local income taxes, and if applicable, may subject certain investors to the Alternative Minimum Tax as well. Each tax free fund may invest up to 20 percent of its assets in securities that pay taxable interest. Income or fund distributions attributable to capital gains are usually subject to both state and federal income taxes. Bond funds are subject to interest-rate risk; their value declines as interest rates rise. The tax free funds may be exposed to risks related to a concentration of investments in a particular state or geographic area. These investments present risks resulting from changes in economic conditions of the region or issuer.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
These market comments were compiled using Bloomberg and Reuters financial news.
Holdings as a percentage of net assets as of 9/30/10:
Janus Capital Group Inc: 0.00%
Legg Mason Inc: 0.00%
Bank of New York Mellon Corp: 0.00%
Wells Fargo & Co: 0.00%
Principal Financial Group: 0.00%
Harman International Industries Inc: 0.00%
Vulcan Materials Co: 0.00%
Ford Motor Co: 0.00%
Volvo: 0.00%
Archer Daniels Midland: 0.00%
Apollo Group Inc: 0.00%
Discovery Communications Inc: 0.00%
China Steel Corp: 0.00%
BHP Billiton Ltd: Global Resources Fund (2.30%)
Potash Corp: 0.00%
Federal National Mortgage Association: 0.00%
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation: 0.00%
*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry.
The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks.
The S&P BARRA Growth Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all stocks in the S&P 500 that have high price-to-book ratios.
The S&P BARRA Value Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all stocks in the S&P 500 that have low price-to-book ratios.
The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.
The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months.
The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange.
The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver.
The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar.
The MSCI Russia Index is a free-float weighted equity index developed in 1994 to track major equities traded in the Russian market.
The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks.
The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.
The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The ISM manufacturing composite index is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eight sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms from 21 industries in all 50 states.
The Baltic Dry Freight Index is an economic indicator that portrays an assessed price of moving major raw materials by sea as compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange.
The China Purchasing Managers’ Index, a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity, is issued by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and co-compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics.
The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the level of private consumption in China.