Boyd, Roosen, Quartermain: It takes grit, invention, luck to make the big time
Mining industry legends discuss the backstories on their multibillion-dollar successes.
Stock picking site Barrons.com on Tuesday published a positive view on potash and the fertilizer market from investment bank Credit Suisse.
Barron’s quotes a Credit Suisse research note that says “positive newsflow and improving sentiment” has convinced it to recommend the three big North American mineral fertilizer names – Agrium, Mosaic and Potash Corp.
According to the note recent Chinese contract settlements along with high spring demand requirements in the Northern Hemisphere should drive strong potash volume recovery and price stabilization, but also has a word of caution for the market later in the year and next:
While we had been forecasting modestly higher potash prices by the end of 2012 on the back of strong volume recovery, we are growing skeptical over whether potash prices can regain the momentum seen last year. Spot potash prices had softened in several markets prior to the Chinese contract settlements, and distributors are indicating greater caution with intentions to exit the spring season with minimal inventories.
In addition, based on our meetings with Mosaic management earlier this month, we believe there could be temporary oversupply in the market in late 2012 or early 2013 as the Canadian producers start running their mines at higher rates in order to prove out their new brownfield capacity to Canpotex [a potash exporter owned by Agrium, Mosaic and Potash Corp.]
