Despite a report on Wednesday showing a surge in July, China’s copper imports were still down 22% in the first seven months, suggesting slowing demand in the world’s top copper consumer is adding to concerns that shaky western economies will knock prices further.
However, according to a new study by Canaccord the copper mining industry is operating under ‘a high degree of stress’ and called robust copper prices the ‘new normal’ thanks to supply shortages.
More than 500,000 tonnes of production have been lost this year due to weather delays, poor deposit grades, worker strikes and mill problems, mostly in Chile, the world’s number one producer.
London Metal Exchange copper prices averaged just over $9,000 a tonne in May and June, coming off a record peak above $10,000 in February, but recovered to average $9,670 in July.
Reuters reports Wednesday China’s copper imports rose 9.5 percent to a six-month high in July as material purchased during a period of lower prices in May and June arrived at ports, but may decline in August.
Forbes reports investment bank Macquarie forecasted at the start of 2011 that roughly 700,000 tons of copper mine production could be lost to disruptions. Only halfway through 2011, more than 75% of that allotment is already accounted for. Since 2004, only around 1.45 million tons of new copper supply have been brought online.
Proactiveinvestors (UK) quotes the authors of the Canaccord study of 16 copper projects around the world as saying ‘dramatically’ rising costs mean project developers need to be confident in life of mine prices averaging at least $6,600/tonne, if not higher.