China’s 2025 steel demand to fall 1.5% on year, state research institute says
China's steel consumption in 2024 and 2025 is forecast at 863 million metric tons and 850 million tons, respectively.
On Friday spot copper was up again at $3.79 a pound in early afternoon dealings in New York – a 15% improvement just since the beginning of August – after a new report by the International Copper Study Group showed the market for the red metal swung into a substantial deficit during the first half of 2012.
According to ICSG, the refined copper market balance for the first half 2012 indicates a seasonally adjusted deficit of 292,000 tonnes (473,000 tonne deficit when not taking into account seasonal factors). This compared with a surplus of 56,000 tonnes during the same period last year.
Previously ICGS predicted a shortfall of 237,000 tonnes for the entire 2012. This H1 figure is also much higher than previous estimated by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics which in its analysis calculated a 129,000 tonne deficit.
Supply in the global copper market has long been tight and is getting tighter. Primary mine production grew just 2.4% in H1 2012, but global usage expanded 7.3%, mainly thanks to Chinese imports which ICGS notes could be a factor of stockpiling not actual usage.
Copper’s recovery from year lows over the summer also comes on the back of renewed hopes the Chinese government’s $157 billion infrastructure programmes will boost demand.
World annual refined copper usage has increased by 31% over the last decade from 15.2 million tonnes to 19.9 million tonnes almost entirely on the back of increased Chinese consumption. The country’s usage shot up 185% and China consumes 43% of the global supply of the red metal currently. That’s up from 18% in 2002.
