How to spot buyout clues in today’s resource market

Spot potash prices for the standard grade leaving the port of Vancouver rose from $445 per tonne in May to $481 in June and $490 in July and is up US$111 since December according to the Scotiabank Commodity Price Index out on Wednesday. Scotiabank also said Canpotex, the marketing agent for Western Canada's three potash producers, is virtually sold out for the third quarter this year and a third price increase this year of $30 to $40 is likely.

The chief of a Saskatchewan First Nation located near BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Jansen potash project is calling on the province to consult aboriginal communities in the region about the potential mine.

The value of mergers and acquisitions in the mining sector more than doubled to $96.3 billion in the first six months of the year and could top $200 billion for the whole of 2011 says a new research report. Canadian companies – both as acquirers and as the targets of buyers – dominated corporate finance activity in the first half shaking on more than a deal a day and at 325 deals accounting for almost two-thirds of all the metals and minerals transactions carried out around the world.

Grizzly Discoveries Inc. announced on Monday it has applied for a new metallic and industrial mineral permit in Alberta along the Saskatchewan border covering approximately 4,672 hectares to add to its existing land holdings of more than 2.4 million acres for its Alberta Potash Project. Stocks in the micro-cap company was steady at 70c on Monday following the news and is worth more than double what it was at the start of 2011. Apart from potash Grizzly is exploring for gold and base metals in British Columbia and diamonds in Alberta.

Canada’s mining industry continues to rally from the recent global recession, with this year’s production currently exceeding that of 2010, reports government department Natural Resources Canada (NRCan).

Stocks of Canadian potash juniors Allana, Passport and Western Potash all showed double digit gains for the week to Thursday as the heavyweight producers all announce significant contract price gains and their export arm appears to run out of inventories altogether. This after Bloomberg quoted the CEO of Mosaic as saying the Canpotex "cupboard is bare" and that the sensitive issue of fertilizer deliveries to India's 55 million farmers is not being discussed at the moment.

BHP Billiton has received notice from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment that ministerial approval has been granted for the development of the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan. BHP Billiton submitted the Environmental Impact Statement in December 2010 in accordance with the Environmental Assessment Act.

Reuters reports: Shares of Potash Corp and other fertilizer producers ebbed on Monday despite bullish industry data as a decline in U.S. corn and wheat prices signaled weaker demand for crop nutrients. PotashCorp said on its website that potash inventories at the end of June fell more than 270,000 tonnes from the previous month, with North American inventories about 26% below the prior 5-year average.

India's Department of Fertilisers raised concerns with the country's Foreign Affairs minister on Thursday over 2011 prices set by Canpotex, the company that markets and distributes Saskatchewan's potash globally. India's farming co-ops have halted imports due to the impasse and while waiting for a government decision on import subsidies. At over 6 million tonnes/year India is the biggest importer but says it pays much higher prices than a country like China can negotiate.