The mining supercycle and its demise

Brazil is offering a carrot to encourage domestic production of fertilizer while at the same time, reaching a little deeper into the pockets of iron ore miners. A Mining Ministry official from the South American powerhouse said Thursday that Brazil plans to boost taxes on iron ore while cutting the levy on fertilizers as part of a plan to overhaul mining regulations, Bloomberg reported: The government is studying a plan to double the royalty on iron ore to 4 percent of gross revenue from 2 percent of net sales now, Claudio Scliar, the ministry’s secretary for geology and mining, said today in an interview. The levy on fertilizers may be reduced from 3 percent to prompt producers to increase domestic output of the crop nutrients, he said, declining to specify the size of the cut.

The value of stock in Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, the world’s largest miner of the soil nutrient, are down more than 13% or $6 billion since Tuesday after losing 2.8% in afternoon trade on Monday on the back of plummeting corn prices in the US. The price per bushel of the largest US crop has declined 25% since June and farmers are now hard-pressed to slash input costs which means cutting back on fertilizer. Globally there is a similar trend and in India, the world's largest importer of potash, sales were down more than 50% over the monsoon planting season.

North Atlantic Potash Inc., the Canadian subsidiary of JSC Acron, today completed the sale of eight of its potash permitted areas to the Yancoal Canada Resources Co. Ltd. of China for $110 million. The sale allows North Atlantic Potash to focus its activity on key areas of interest within its remaining potash permits in Saskatchewan. The infusion of cash means the prioritization of advanced exploration and drilling required to delineate resources can now proceed through a systematic and strategic capital expenditure program. This sale relates to North Atlantic Potash's potash permit holdings located north of Regina (see map on website: permits KP 374, 377, 392, 406, 506, 399, 378, and 507).

Vale announced this week it is investing $15 billion to expand fertilizer production joining a Canadian merchant bank promoting a $4 billion potash project in the Amazon basin. There's just one problem: the land is owned by Brazil's state oil company Petrobras and they've also found oil there.

North Atlantic Potash Inc., the Canadian subsidiary of JSC Acron, and Rio Tinto today signed a joint venture agreement on potash exploration opportunities and possible mine construction. The agreement relates to North Atlantic Potash''s potash permit holdings located in the southern part of Saskatchewan''s potash district. The joint venture will cover nine permitted areas that cover an area of about 600,000 acres (about 241,000 hectares) that extends from the eastern shore of Last Mountain Lake southeast toBroadview (see map on website: permits KP 375 in the west to KP 403 in the east).

CTV reports a US federal appeals court threw out an antitrust class-action lawsuit accusing seven companies of engaging in a global conspiracy to raise the price of potash since 2003 on the grounds that it could not rule on the alleged wrongful conduct on markets in India, China and Brazil. The defendants included Agrium, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Mosaic Co., and four companies that conduct mining operations in Russia and Belarus: Uralkali, Silvinit, Belarusian Potash and International Potash. Together the groups produce some 70% of the world's potash.

Premier Christy Clark announced on Monday a $15-million contribution for a $90-million road rail utility corridor project, phase one of a planned $300-million development at the Port of Prince Rupert. The $90-million Road Rail Utility Corridor Project will expand Ridley Island's terminal capacity to help meet growing demand from Asia for Canada's natural resources. The project includes construction of new inbound and outbound rail lines and the extension of on-site rail and utilities. The BC government says that the investment will create over 570 direct construction jobs over the life of the project and will further provide up to 4,000 operational jobs after all construction is complete.

The Hindu Business Line reports disproportionate price increases of fertilizers are clearly playing out, with sales of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) falling 21.6% and muriate of potash (MOP) plunging 58% during the kharif (monsoon) planting season. The more than 50 million small farmers in India that depend on the soil nutrient have also had to contend with a weak rupee that caused domestic MOP prices to rise by as much as 91%. India imports some 6 million tonnes of potash a year with current pricing around the $500/tonne level. Chinese and Indian consumption drove the potash price from $100/tonne in 2004 to almost $900/tonne in the run up to the 2008 recession when the boom went bust and prices rapidly fell back to $350/tonne.

Encouraged by test work that revealed extraction potential using its own technology at one of the world’s largest known glauconite deposits, Perth-based Potash West on Wednesday expanded it exploration tenure by almost 40% to 2,905km² in Australia's wheatbelt. The company raised $6 million on the Sydney bourse in May this year hoping to become the first Australian firm to break into the lucrative potash market dominated by about 10 mainly Canadian companies. Global potash prices currently average $500 a tonne, up more than 40% from 2008-recession lows.