Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
The US economy could see a $3.4 billion hit if China imposes a total ban on gallium and germanium, according to a new report released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).
In 2023, China imposed export licensing controls on mineral commodities containing gallium and germanium, requiring state approval for all exports and establishing a pathway to progressive export restrictions. China announced restrictions on the export of eight gallium and six germanium products starting Aug. 1, the latest salvo in an escalating war between Beijing and Washington over access to materials used in making high-tech microchips.
China supplies 60% of the world’s germanium, used in applications such as fiber optic cables, solar cells, and infrared technology. Prices for the metal hit record highs earlier this year in China due to speculation about potential state buying.
According to the USGS, economic losses in the US would primarily impact the semiconductor device manufacturing industry, accounting for over 40% of the total loss. Additional losses would affect downstream producers reliant on semiconductors.
The agency also forecasts gallium prices could increase by more than 150% and germanium prices by 26% in the event of a total ban.
“Losing access to critical minerals that constitute a small fraction of the value of products like semiconductors and LEDs can result in billions of dollars in economic losses,” said Nedal Nassar, lead author of the report.
Comments
Rusty Atwood
I have a deposit that can supply gallium and many more critical minerals but I can’t even get a target number from the department of energy? Owner of Alaska Rare Earth LLC