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A new report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that commodities exporters and emerging economies will be hardest hit by slower growth in China and an attendant decline in commodities prices.
According to the report released in Washington on Thursday China’s internal investment has comprised around 50% of economic growth throughout the first decade of the new century, with infrastructure investment becoming especially prominent towards the end of the noughties following the introduction of stimulus programs to weather the global financial crisis.
The IMF cautions that a slowdown could be imminent due to China’s over-reliance on investment spending to spur growth.
“With investment already close to 50% of output and China’s continued reliance on investment to drive growth, it is unclear whether the new capacity will be profitable,” said the IMF.
Any economies with significant exposure to China will be adversely affected by a growth contraction. Major commodities exporters such as Australia and Brazil would suffer from a decline in Chinese investment spending, although their scale and diversified economies would mitigate much of the dolour.
