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A leading analyst says growth in China is set to gradually recuperate as the Middle Kingdom’s economy experiences a short, sharp U-shaped convalescence.
In a new report Ma Jun, Deutsche Bank’s chief analyst for the greater China region, says the Chinese economy will undergo a U-shaped recovery similar but briefer than the one which characterized its return to form during the period from 1998 to 2000 in the immediate wake of the Asian Economic Crisis.
According to Ma the adjustment period for China’s convalescence after the 1997 Asian crash lasted roughly three years, while the adjustment period for the country’s current round of economic malaise will be a mere year and a half,
Ma says we are already half way through the current adjustment period, which he believes commenced in the first quarter of this year, and that by the middle of next year capacity utilization rates and earnings growth will return to normal levels as the resumption of investment by companies invigorates the economy.
Ma sees quarterly GDP growth rising gradually from here on in, with forecasts of 7.7% year-on-year GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the year, 2013 H1 growth of around 7.9%, and a return to rude health for the Chinese economy by the second half of 2013 with growth of 8.5%.
