Column: Demand weakness helps cushion tin from supply problems
Tin demand last year was weaker than expected and is on course for only a modest recovery in 2024, according to the International Tin Association.
Coal-fired power and heating helped turning China into the world’s largest emitter of carbon and other heat-trapping gases.
China’s decision to ban the use of coal from Beijing and other major cities by 2020 grabbed headlines this week, but experts are saying it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s coal consumption.
Despite the nation increasing efforts to curb air pollution, demand for the fossil fuel in China is expected to stay steady, as the country’s population and economy expand.
Coal-fired power and heating is a major generator of greenhouse gases and, according to data from the US Energy Administration (EIA), it has helped turning the Asian giant into the world’s largest emitter of carbon and other heat-trapping gases.
Source: EIA, 2014.
According to official Xinhua News agency, coal accounted for 25% of Beijing’s energy consumption in 2012 and 22% of the fine particles floating in the city’s air. Motor vehicles, industrial production and general dust also contributed to pollution in the city of 21 million people.
Game changers
Reports claim the smog-plagued city will instead rely on electricity and natural gas for heating, cooking and other uses.
Growth in China’s overall energy use is slowing anyway, with the broader economy. At the speed at which alternative sources are stealing coal’s share, it is possible for Chinese coal demand to start falling soon.
The theory is supported by recent research from ratings agency Standard & Poor’s. Last month it published a report saying that Chinese demand for coal is likely to peak in six years.
Shale gas could be a “game changer” the agency said, but significant pipeline infrastructure needs to be installed before the country’s reserves can be fully exploited.
Coal companies in Europe are likely to be hit hardest, with the report dismissing any short-term impacts on coal mining in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Australia.
4 Comments
Marc Zimmer
Dayummmmmm there goes Tony Abbott’s entire coal strategy!!!!!!!
Ivan Fed
Fat chance! Only when pigs fly!
klgmac
Good luck with that. Germany is going the other way The US will too.
Bob Lyman
The trends of the past 30 years suggest continued rapid growth in Chinese energy demand well into the future. The only question is what combination of energy sources will the Chinese use to meet the demand. Coal has the significant advantages of being plentiful, cheap and secure. There is plenty of room to improve the efficiency of coal-burning plants and to install pollution-reducing equipment to improve air quality. China may be able to significantly increase oil and natural gas consumption to replace coal, but that is expensive, requires major new infrastructure and (unless there is a major breakthrough in shale production) increased reliance on foreign sources. Nuclear energy use will undoubtedly increase, but that will be needed to cope with increased demand, not supplant existing coal uses. Wind and solar are increasing, but at best are expensive, intermittent and unreliable. It seems likely that those predicting an actual decline in coal consumption in China are engaging more in climate change-motivated wishful thinking than in assessment of the real options facing the Chinese.