Aluminum Market Walking Into A Bullish 2011

(This column originally appeared on Jan. 11, 2011.)

The aluminum market’s lifeblood is manufacturing and packaging – and things are looking up in these early days of 2011. The metal is now trading at $2,505 per metric ton and continues to bounce around the $2,550 level, MF Global writes in a LME Daily Metals Report this week. While there’s a strong floor at $2,430, upside resistance kicks in around $2,541, it said.

Alcoa reported a fourth-quarter profit Monday after a year-ago loss, beating estimates. It said projected demand would rise in 2011. Improved earnings were driven by higher prices, continued strength in most end-markets, and improved productivity as a result of cost-cutting measures, the U.S. producer said.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets watched Alcoa’s shares edge up Monday, closing at $16.49, and then downgraded the blue-chip to underperform from sector perform, thanks to what might be called share price over-exurberance.

Alcoa’s results were offset somewhat by a weaker U.S. dollar and higher raw material costs. “In 2011, we see aluminum [demand] growing another 12% on top of last year’s 13% improvement” Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld said. He later told CNBC that global aluminum markets continue to grow, and that in the construction and building markets, the company is seeing “a little light at the end of the tunnel.”

During an earlier conference call he said:  “We do see all global end markets showing improvement compared to 2010. We also do see aluminum supply and demand surplus continue to shrink. We will also see headwinds, like we did this year, currency and energy being the top two ones.”

Harbor Aluminum said in a separate year-end report that the industry is in the middle stages of a new wave up in aluminum prices. The aluminum intelligence unit said this week that global manufacturing activity is expanding at the fastest pace in six months, with developed markets now out-producing emerging markets. Why? A pick up in auto, construction and packaging sectors is now evident, even in the U.S., it said.