Mining’s old guard needs strong medicine
A new report details subpar investor returns in the mining industry over the last decade, particularly big cap diversified companies which have not adapted to new realities.
A strong Canadian dollar, a well-supplied North American market and a lack of access to international markets continues to dampen Canadian domestic oil and gas prices according to a quarterly price forecast released today by AJM Deloitte. Meanwhile, the forecast indicates that increasing world demand, coupled with declining production of light to higher medium API crude oils from the world’s older reservoirs will continue to put upward pressure on international energy commodity prices.
“Canada is currently restricted to a declining market and not able to access world growth markets, and this puts downward pressure on our domestic energy commodity prices” said Ralph Glass, AJM Deloitte Director of Energy Valuation and Operations. “On the crude oil side, Edmonton City Gate prices have and will continue to lag behind the US WTI price. This is because the strong Canadian dollar makes our oil more expensive, and because we are increasing crude oil production both from oilsands and from horizontal drilling in existing reservoirs. Natural gas has shown some signs of recovery, but is also suppressed by the high Canadian dollar and high US production levels.”
On the international scene, Mr. Glass believes that declining reserves of lighter to higher medium API crudes, coupled with the inability of refineries to handle the heavier crudes, will decrease refining margins and result in higher petrol prices and an upward pressure on the Brent 38˚ API crude price.
“A lot of factors are combining to increase global demand for oil and gas,” added Mr. Glass. “The Chinese and Indian economies continue to grow. The consumer-driven economies in the Middle East, Africa and South America require more energy. And, since the Japan tsunami, there is a growing worldwide hesitancy about nuclear energy. Unlike in North America, worldwide demand for petroleum energy is predicted to grow over the next 20-plus years with oil demand increasing by 18 percent and natural gas by as much as 80 percent.”
AJM Deloitte’s June 30, 2011 Canadian domestic forecast predicts an Edmonton real price of Cdn$95.00/bbl for the remainder of 2011 and continuing for the foreseeable future. The WTI Cushing price is likely to hold at US$100.00/bbl throughout that same time frame. On international commodity markets, AJM Deloitte forecasts the Brent spot price is likely to remain at US$108.00/bbl for the remainder of 2011, leveling off to US$105.00/bbl from 2012 to the end of the forecast. In natural gas, AJM Deloitte forecasts the Alberta AECO average price at Cdn$4.10/mcf in real terms for the remainder of 2011, increasing to Cdn$6.50/mcf by 2020. NYMEX natural gas for the balance of 2011 is forecast at $US4.50/mcf in real terms, rising to US$7.00/mcf by 2020.
Read the full news release here.
