Earth AI, Legacy Minerals make first greenfield palladium discovery using artificial intelligence
The companies announced the verified discovery of one of the largest palladium mineral systems in Australia.
Increased demand for battery materials used in electric vehicles has reignited interest in the mining sector now that the China-induced supercycle in commodities demand is levelling off.
But if you rely on forecasts of EV take-up from the US Energy Information Administration, you may well wonder what the hype is about.
The EIA Energy Outlook 2019, released last week, foresees uptake of electric vehicles in the world’s second largest car market over the next 30 years that won’t rev mining investors’ engines.
According to the report, the combined share of sales attributable to gasoline and flex-fuel vehicles (gasoline blended with ethanol) declines from 93% in 2018 to 75% in 2050.
From EIA Energy Outlook, 2019
The EIA predicts electricity usage in battery powered, plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles to increase by 11.3% through 2050. That’s impressive growth, but electricity usage by the country’s light-duty vehicle fleet would still constitute less than 5% of the total.
Usage of electricity by transit buses is expected to grow at a 9.4% clip and constitute 11% of the total, but for intercity travel, electricity doesn’t even feature in the projections.
According to the outlook, California’s zero-emission vehicle regulation, which nine additional states have adopted, requires a minimum percentage of vehicle sales of battery-powered and and plug-in hybrids.
From EIA Energy Outlook, 2019
In 2025, the year the regulation and new federal fuel economy standards go into full effect, projected sales of battery-powered and plug-in hybrids is expected to reach 1.3 million, or about 8% of projected total vehicle sales.
That’s a far cry from Chinese uptake of EVs. Last year around 1.1m so-called new energy vehicle were sold in the world’s largest auto market, up nearly 70% from 2017.
In terms of the transportation industry as a whole and not just cars, electricity’s share of fuel consumption in the US hardly registers.
15 Comments
Joe Saldarelli
Consumer demand for EVs in Canada and USA is minimal.
Jeff Leel
No its not there are just no vehicles phev or EV vehicles on the lots or used ones to buy!
BruceofCanuckistan
Flatly false. Wait lists are 18 months long. Demand far outstrips supply now.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4566346/electric-vehicle-shortage-b-c/
Alan Osborne
It all comes down to government policy and incentives to coax people into buying EVs. Norway has done exactly that, with impressive results (about 50% of cars in Norway are now either BEVs or PHEVs):
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/
BarKingFish
Tesla Model 3 was the fifth best selling car for the last few months of 2018 in the U.S and 8% of new car sales in Canada. wait until they can make enough it will be number one selling car in North America next year.
BruceofCanuckistan
Reminds me of this:
https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2017/06/12/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency/
najirban
If I was a home owner, an ev would fit my lifestyle as an in town commuter and runabout. Too poor for this movement so used ICE for this guy
Annette Hunter
Yes. Price has been the barrier, but that is coming to an end. Even now a used Leaf a possibility for many.
Richard Zoyhofski
I just would like to know were are we going to get all this electricity?
Joe Walley
Coal natural gas and flooding and killing trees
Annette Hunter
Dumbest study I’ve ever seen. In the real world EV growth is exponential, why? Your friend rides in your EV and wants one of there own. Price has been a barrier, but that barrier is about to fall. Within several years EVs will be both better and cheaper than ICE vehicles. ICE production will collapse before 2030.
Stavros Hadjiyiannis
That barrier has been about to fall since forever it seems. No subsidies, no electric cars. It’s as simple as that.
Henry
Is this an out-of-season April fool’s study?
Unholy Impetuous Ritual Plague
This is more realistic than the ones proposing from EV sites, trying to push people into believing EVs are the future. It’s far more likely that a zero emissions gas vehicle will come around and including alternate energy sources for the ICE engines.
onesecond
Funny enough, if this projections came true, the global civilisation would collapse due to catastrophic climate change. Ok, mankind is pretty stupid, but not that stupid.