SNL Energy: Illinois nuclear plants in jeopardy

If the two Illinois nuclear plants operated by Exelon Corp. subsidiary Exelon Nuclear that did not clear PJM Interconnection LLC’s forward capacity auction for the delivery period of June 1, 2017, to May 31, 2018, are retired along with the company’s Clinton power station in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator Inc. region, it could deal a substantial blow to the baseload power resources in the state.

In 2013, the three plants, including Byron generating station and Quad Cities in PJM and Clinton in MISO, generated almost 43,297 GWh of electricity. In 2012, the latest year for which comprehensive data is available, the plants generated between 10% and 16% of the electricity in their respective ISO zones, with Byron and Quad Cities together accounting for 30% of the 2012 net generation in PJM’s ComEd zone and Clinton accounting for 10% of the 2012 net generation in MISO’s Zone 4.

Low power prices driven by stagnant demand and inexpensive natural gas have made it challenging for the three plants to remain viable in the current market.

SNL Energy forecasts peak demand in PJM to grow about 5% between 2014 and 2018, while peak demand in MISO is expected to grow over 2%. At the same time, the 2018 annual average forward price at the Northern Illinois hub and ComEd hubs in PJM was almost 8% and 9% higher, respectively, than the 2014 annual average forward price as of market close on Oct. 15, while the 2018 annual average forward price at the Illinois hub in MISO was 12% higher than the 2014 annual average forward price.

Keep reading the full report and analysis here.