Mexico’s proposed higher mining royalties could block nearly $7bn in investments
The Mexican government proposed raising mining royalties under the argument that metal prices have risen in recent years.
By Henry Bonner
Tensions gripped East Asia in November as Beijing announced an air defense identification zone covering the East China Sea. Aircraft flying through the zone are supposed to report their movements to the Chinese military. Washington meanwhile, has emphasized that it will protect its ally Tokyo in territorial disputes, including islands that are claimed by both Tokyo and Beijing.1
Reuter’s Ian Bremmer comments2:
Beijing continues to use Tokyo as a release valve for nationalistic pressures as it softens foreign policy on other fronts – particularly with U.S. relations, the charm offensive is motivated, in part, by an effort to drive a wedge between the U.S. and Japan. In Japan, Shinzo Abe views China’s rise as a longer-term threat to Japan’s standing in the region, and he’s intent on pushing back. […]
Things could get worse, Bremmer argues, because both sides will ‘push the envelope…’ Escalating provocations as far as possible, expecting the other side to capitulate before initiating an all-out war.
Tokyo has courted the support of governments in Southeast Asia, looking to up their weight against Beijing.3
The South Korean regime in Seoul has also entered the fray, expanding its own air defense zone for the first time in 62 years, including airspace that is claimed by Beijing and Tokyo.4
Richard Maybury has authored the Early Warning Report since 1990. I talked to him recently about his latest claim: brewing conflicts – especially regarding the state of affairs in East Asia — will soon replace economic problems as the center of the world’s attention, including in the investment markets.
In his February EWR, Maybury commented:
Little noticed in the mainstream press is the fact that Chinese warships have been invading Japanese territorial waters. This is huge; it’s how President Roosevelt got the US into World War II. In March 1941, Roosevelt began his ‘pop-up cruises,’ sending US warships into Japanese home waters including the Bungo Strait.
The result is to create fear and anxiety amongst populations peripherally affected by the potential conflict, like the common citizens of China, Japan, or South Korea…
“People get scared by these antics… Because the Chinese or Japanese fear irrational and emotional decisions from renegade ‘leaders’ on both sides. The fear these authorities are generating in East Asia is a good example of what’s also happening in the Mideast,” he says. “The investment markets will almost surely be affected.”
The situation in the Middle-East is likely to become much worse, Maybury believes. In his latest writings, he emphasizes that almost every country in the Middle East is either experiencing – or may experience – civil war ahead. In Lebanon, many separate religious groups are trying to seize control… In Egypt, Mubarak’s removal has ‘triggered a terror campaign that threatens to lead to conflict…’ Iran is seeking to regain control of the Persian Gulf…
In his Early Warning Report, Maybury notifies his readers, “Ever since August 2007, economics has been the dominant story in the news and the investment markets, but I think it’s highly likely that geopolitics and military events are now moving back to center stage, which is where they were from 1989 to 2007.”
He says he ‘tries to produce an un-whitewashed’ view of events, and is so convinced that military disasters are on the horizon that he is changing the mix of his Early Warning Report topics to include more geopolitics, military troubles, and the ways they affect markets.
These threats could increase demand for safe-haven investments in coming years, including gold. “Gold has always been a refuge in times of crisis,” Maybury says, “and I believe it’s highly likely we are about to see an era of crisis from Morocco to the Philippines.”
“People who are threatened by these conflicts start looking for safety – for themselves, their families, and their money. Many seek security in hard assets and precious metals. So we could see high demand for commodities and precious metals among populations in that extremely large area.”
Summarizing, if Maybury is right, tensions and potential armed conflicts could become the main focus of public attention in coming years, with economics taking a downstream position. We could see increased interest in precious metals and hard assets from populations not only in East Asia but the Middle-East, too, where the anxiety surrounding these developments is presently most pronounced.
Richard Maybury is the author of the Early Warning Report, where he describes the idea of ‘Chaostan,’ a vast area of conflict including Asia, the Middle-East, and North Africa. Newsweek found that his Chaostan model has affected thinking and decisions in the Pentagon and CIA. Maybury has also been credited with foreseeing the rise in conflicts following the fall of the Soviet regime, and the wave of piracy in Southeast Asia. You can read more from him here.
2 http://blogs.reuters.com/ian-bremmer/2014/02/11/is-the-china-japan-relationship-at-its-worst/
3 http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-18/japans-abe-looks-for-asian-allies-to-say-no-to-china
4 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/09/world/asia/east-china-sea-air-defense-zone.html?_r=0
