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Continuing with our view that two heads are better than one, we are using two methods to attempt to identify under valued prices for Rhodium. In the top chart is the price of $Rhodium along with a traditional stochastic oscillator. $Rhodium is over sold when that measure is below 20%. Such is the case at the present time as most interest in the metals is in Gold.
In the second chart is the ratio of the price of $Rhodium(Rh) to that of $Gold(Au). The two lines are the mean of that ratio plus or minus one standard deviation. For example, probability of ratio being below the bottom line is 1 out of 6. In short, the ratio should rarely be below that line. The same is true for the ratio being below the bottom line. Given the highly speculative nature of $Gold trading at the present time, Rh is under priced relative to $Gold.
We have marked with vertical arrows the three times that both methods were suggesting that $Rhodium was under valued. At the present time $Rhodium seems the better value when compared to $Gold.
In the table below we have introduced our preliminary estimates of value for $Rhodium. Please recognized that these are our first valuations, and are subject to change at a later date. We will try to bracket the true value over time.
$Rhodium = US$2,630 -$120 Vol. 2010-003 26 MAY 2010
Again, note that this research effort is in infancy. Where we go will be in part determined by the market and the interest of investors. We do believe that $Rh is under valued.
|
$Rh Preliminary Price Valuation Range |
|||
|
Rh Current |
Valuation |
$Valuation |
Potential % Change |
|
$2,630 |
Over |
$7,500 |
185% |
|
$2,630 |
Fair |
$6,000 |
128% |
|
$2,630 |
Under |
$4,500 |
71% |
Next publication date: 3 June 2010
Your Eternal Optimist;
Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS
Click to email me: [email protected]
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RHODIUM: THE 21ST CENTURY PRECIOUS METAL
RHODIUM TRADING THOUGHTS is published presently on an regular basis, and is available only at our web site: www.valueviewgoldreport.com
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