‘Shocking’ trade numbers have some Australians calling the end of the mining boom

The industry will die without a strong pipeline of projects

Australia’s February trade data showed the country suffered two consecutive months of deficits for the first time in two years.

The overall figures are bad enough, but the number one factor behind the slump was plunging income from resources – the value of coal exports dove 19% and that of metal ores and minerals exports declined 10%.

The volume of hard coking coal exports dropped 27% in February, a bad number even when taking into account Chinese holidays and severe weather.

The fact that income fell even while iron ore volumes increased 16% shows how severe the slump in prices have been.

Brisbane Times quotes HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham as saying: “The commodity price cycle peaked in the third quarter of last year. With global growth expected to be below trend and more commodity supply to come on stream over the next year or two, it appears likely Australia’s terms of trade peaked in the third quarter as well.”

Citigroup economist Josh Williamson, quoted by The Australian, was even gloomier saying “This is a shocking trade result . . . the bulk of the disappointment came from the failure of commodity exports to recover from their January decline.”

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