Anglo American shrinks trading unit as part of major restructuring
The miner also announced internally that it will no longer enter into long-term deals to buy commodities that it doesn’t already produce.
This year could be the best for manganese producers, particularly for Asian countries, as the “Manganese: Global industry markets and outlook, 2012,” released today suggests.
At the end of 2011, says the report, market conditions for manganese products were relatively weak, with a large stockpile of ore at Chinese ports and poor demand for steel long products. Underlying these factors specific to manganese were low business confidence and economic uncertainty, particularly in Europe and the USA, arising in part from the Eurozone debt crisis.
In the longer term, the direction of manganese prices will depend on a combination of economic growth in the industrialized world, and continued expansion of industrialising and emerging economies in Asia and South America. Recovery, particularly of the construction industries in Europe and North America, could lead to a firming of manganese ferroalloy prices in 2013 and beyond. This, coupled with continued infrastructural growth in China, India and elsewhere in Asia, should result in secure markets and rising prices for manganese. Expansion of Asian automobile industries will also stimulate manganese prices.
Steel production to remain primary use for manganese
Used to impart strength and remove sulphur, the use of manganese in the production of steel will remain the largest end-use. In 2010-11, approximately 90% of total manganese consumption was within the steel industry.
Manganese is an essential constituent in iron and steel and has no satisfactory substitute in this application. In 2011, the unit consumption was 8kg Mn/t of steel, although changes in steelmaking processes and practices have gradually reduced the intensity of use. Over the next five years, the rise in steel production will lead to an increase in manganese consumption, with an annual average growth rate of 6% over the next five years, with China and India providing the main impetus for this growth.
Although steel production will remain the largest end-use for manganese, other areas of growth are of interest.
Global demand for manganese in batteries has been relatively stable at about 300ktpy. This has mainly been accounted for by zinc and alkaline primary batteries, but demand for manganese in rechargeable batteries has risen in recent years.
Demand for manganese for primary batteries is likely to show some growth, particularly for lithium and alkaline batteries in China and south Asian countries. But in Japan, Europe and North America future demand for manganese in primary batteries is likely to be relatively flat, whereas use of manganese for lithium-ion (Li-ion batteries) secondary batteries will rise strongly.
Overall, total demand for manganese is expected to increase by around 6% per year over the next five years.
New capacity will enter the market to supply ever growing appetites
As demand for manganese continues rising, new supply will be required to enter the market to satisfy requirements. Some 10Mtpy (gross weight ore) of new manganese mining capacity is planned, mainly in South Africa where three mining projects with a total output of 6.3Mtpy of saleable ore or sinter are planned. The first on stream is likely to be the 2.4Mtpy Kalagadi project.
About 2.3Mtpy of manganese ferroalloy (including Mn-rich slag) projects were being planned in 2011. The largest of these was the 320ktpy Kalagadi installation, which is scheduled to start up in the second half of 2012 at Coega in the Eastern Cape ofSouth Africa.
In China the electrolytic manganese metal (EMM) industry is being restructured which will result in fewer, larger operations. Some 30 EMM producers with capacities of more than 30ktpy are scheduled to be built from 2011 to 2015. Since 2004, some 450ktpy of small scale EMM capacity has been eliminated in an effort to modernise the industry.
Power restrictions and a return of global economic growth will provide impetus for manganese prices
At the end of 2011, market conditions for manganese products were relatively weak, with a large stockpile of ore at Chinese ports, and the restart of silicomanganese smelters in China as power restrictions were eased.
In the coming years, the direction of manganese prices will depend on a combination of economic growth in the industrialized world, and continued expansion of industrializing and emerging economies in Asia and South America.
Recovery, particularly of the construction industries in Europe and North America, could lead to a firming of manganese ferroalloy prices in 2013 and beyond.
Existing and projected manganese ferroalloy capacity in the main producing countries (China, India, South Africa, Ukraine and Norway) appears adequate in the medium term, but recurring power restrictions and industry restructuring in China could lead to further short term supply limitations. However, prices are on the whole expected to increase from 2011 levels, potentially rising by around 20% over the next five years.
The full report contains 308 pages, 162 tables and 86 figures and it can be accessed here.
