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Ore with 62% iron content delivered to the Chinese port of Tianjin was little changed at $139.90 per metric ton this week according to data from Steel Index, indicating that for 2012 the price of the commodity has been static.
January’s lacklustre performance compares to a 11% rebound in November and a 5.8% gain last month. October last year iron ore prices experienced a mini-crash with spot declining from a record high of $180 to a low of $116/tonne. Benchmark 62% iron ore averaged a record $168 during 2011.
Businessweek reports China, increased annual steel output at the slowest rate in three years in 2011:
“World growth is going to be a bit subdued, and very anemic in Europe, so there’s not going to be any push for stronger iron ore prices,” said Michael Heffernan, a Melbourne- based client adviser at Austock Securities Ltd. “You’re not going to see iron ore prices skyrocket.”
Reuters reports London-based researcher Fairfax is forecasting 62% grade ore to average $125 per tonne in 2012 and $120 in 2013.
“We expect iron ore prices to be finely balanced in 2012 against a weaker demand outlook. Prices are unlikely to collapse as Chinese demand remains strong and supply is likely to disappoint this year.”
The Wall Street Journal quotes commodity analysts, Peter Archbold of Fitch saying Australia’s iron ore producers are not worried by the slowdown in China:
“Margins available on iron ore, even after taking account of expected price falls, would be higher than most other commodities in their portfolios–exceptions would be petroleum, copper and possibly bauxite..,” Mr. Archbold said in an interview released by Fitch. “Therefore, when the companies are comparing project returns internally, iron ore expansion is an easy decision to approve relative to other commodities including aluminum, lead or zinc.”
India has been reducing iron ore exports to China, providing support for the price. India’s largest iron ore producer told Business Standard domestic prices of iron ore have remained steady, despite the drop in international prices from September highs. The country has a shortage of ore because of bans on mining in different states over environmental concerns, fraud scandals and illegal mining practices.
Last week MINING.com argued that iron ore, not gold, was the mining story of the decade: The dynamics of the market and the fundamentals of the industry have been transformed entirely since 2000. Read more…
Comments
Mikenwafor
New mines from Africa, especially Nigeria will also put further pressure on prices. Am on the lookout