On the path to production

• Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) or scoping studies are done to examine potential mining scenarios and economic parameters – A PEA or scoping study is an important milestone for a mineral project, it’s the first step in a company’s  economic and technical examination of a proposed mine
• Preliminary feasibility studies or pre-feasibility studies are more detailed than PEA’s and are used to determine whether or not to proceed with a detailed feasibility study. They are also used as a reality check to determine areas within the project that require more attention
• Feasibility studies will determine definitively whether or not to proceed with the project. A feasibility study or bankable feasibility provides budget figures for the project and will be the basis for raising capital to build the mine

Remember all these different stage studies are only yes/no decisions on whether to move to the next stage. NONE of them mean you are going mining, there’s no mine till every stage is completed, permits approved and the necessary financing has been arranged.

In this article I am show casing eight companies that have made discoveries, are advancing their projects and are Stage Three junior resource companies.

Following is a list (in no particular order) of current aheadoftheherd.com sponsor companies and their share price when they became aheadoftheherd.com sponsors, their highest share price between then and now and their current share price. In this authors opinion all these companies are either take out targets for their future production, future share of production or are going to be producers in their own right:

• Western Potash TSX – WPX: $0.45 – $1.80 – $1.34
• Cangold TSX.V – CLD: $0.15 – share consolidation one for five @ .10, [email protected], $0.75, $0.36
• Kootenay Gold TSX.V – KTN: $0.45 – $1.33 – $1.19
• Niogold TSX.V – NOX: $0.30 – $0.55 – $0.335
• Uranerz Energy TSX – URZ: $1.50 – $5.84 – $2.26
• VMS Ventures TSX.V – VMS: $0.33 – $0.85 – $0.375
• Verde (formerly Amazon) Potash TSX – NPK: $1.10 – $9.37 – $7.40
• Terraco Gold Corp. TSX.V – TEN: .10 – .48 – .24

  Western Potash TSX – WPX

It seems the main knock against a junior having a potash project like WPX’s solution mine is the cost of building production, capex @ $2.9 billion.

That’s a lot of money, but look at what you get – when all of WPX’s potash is figured in you get upwards of 100 years of production and roughly $1.2 billion a year in revenues. That’s big business.

Only the BHP’s, the Vales and maybe a dozen or so other companies are big enough to take that on outright. But there are countries out there – China, India and Indonesia to name a few – looking to secure potash supplies, many of the world’s most prosperous developing nations have virtually NO indigenous potash production.

Potash Ones Legacy project was bought for $430 million, and the buyer, K+S, still has to still spend the couple of billion to build production. And that was with potash prices 40% lower than today’s.

WPX has the capability to go it alone. Securing off-take agreements – money now for guaranteed rights to buy eventual potash production – is within management capabilities.

  Cangold TSX.V – CLD              

Cangold negotiated a deal with Brigus Gold on the Ixhuatan Gold Project in Chiapas State in southern Mexico. The best way for the reactivated shell to finance the acquisition and work program, with a .10 stock, was do a 1 for 5 rollback and finance at .50 cents.

There’s a measured and compliant resource of 1,041,000 ounces of gold and 4,400,000 million ounces of silver, and another 700,000 ounces of gold and 2,250,000 ounces of silver in the inferred category.

There has been 89,000 meters of drilling in 342 holes conducted across the project, the resource is mostly in the Campamento deposit and there are seven or eight other targets on the property.

The work needed to advance this project to a mine is mostly engineering studies. The engineers will start optimizing the open pit shell, looking for the best place to locate a plant and tailings pond etc.

  Kootenay Gold TSX.V – KTN

Kootenays 100% owned Promontorio Silver Project in Sonora Mexico already has a significant resource. The AGP resource estimate posted on their website comprises Indicated Mineral Resources of 5.22 million tonnes averaging 52.7 g/t silver, 0.86% lead and 0.96% zinc, containing 8.9 million oz Silver, 99.3 million pounds of lead and 110.8 million pounds of zinc. AGP also estimated that Promontorio contains 0.65 million tonnes averaging 55.7 g/t silver, 0.94% lead and 1.00% zinc in the Inferred category, containing 1.17 million oz Silver,13.4 million pounds of lead and 14.3 million pounds of zinc.

KTN is about 60% through a 25,000 meter drill program on the project and currently has three drill rigs working. The Promotorio resource is going to expand in size and the deposit will become a significant silver producer.

  Niogold TSX.V – NOX

Aurizon can earn up to a 65% interest in NOX’s Marban Block property. The initial 50% interest can be earned by incurring expenditures of $20 million over three years, completing an updated NI 43-101 compliant mineral resource estimate, and by making a resource payment for 50% of the total gold ounces defined by the mineral resource estimate.

The first phase program consisted of 50,253 meters of diamond drilling at a total cost of $6 million. Drilling was distributed between the Marban (41,270m) and Norlartic (4,319m) deposits and exploration drill hole fences between the two deposits (4,664m). Highlights include the identification of two new gold zones surrounding the former Marban mine named the ‘High Grade Western Zone’ and ‘Eastern Down Dip Zone.

The $5 million second phase program will include 34,000 meters of diamond drilling, updated resource estimates and basic technical studies.

If Aurizon sees what it needs to over the just started phase two program they will not have a Marban production partner. In this authors opinion it does not make sense for Aurizon to do a third year and buy the ozs to complete their earn in if they like the results of the upcoming studies.

  Uranerz Energy TSX – URZ 

For 2010 global uranium production was 140 million pounds. The 440 nuclear reactors in operation worldwide require 180 million pounds to keep them running. There are 62 more reactors being built and coming online. The yearly shortfall of uranium is covered right now by the U.S./Russian HEU agreement that’s due to end in 2013, and there are some government and utility stockpiles. These stockpiles will run out and the price of uranium will increase.

The U.S. has 104 nuclear reactors operating – the US has the largest fleet and is the largest market in the world for uranium. Last year it took up to 55 million pounds of uranium to keep the existing U.S. nuclear fleet running – the mined supply of uranium in the US was about 4 million pounds in 2010.

Uranerz is licensed, at its Nichols Ranch project in Wyoming, for two million pounds of uranium production per year. The plan is to build the plant to initially handle 6-800,000 pounds a year. The company can easily ramp up production by bringing satellite deposits on.

  VMS Ventures TSX.V – VMS

The VMS/HudBay joint venture Reed Copper deposit is 2.55 million tonnes of 4.5% copper with upside potential. The two companies are focusing on moving Reed Lake forward, first a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) and then the construction phase with production starting in early 2013.

HudBay has optioned VMS’s Superzone property, the property consists of the Northwest, the Super Zone, the Northeast and the Tower Zones. The Reed North property in the Super Zone area is a new discovery in bimodal volcanism. HudBay’s Trout Lake mine, soon to be closed, is in bimodal volcanism and produced 20 million tonnes over LOM – life of mine.

Verde (formerly Amazon) Potash TSX – NPK  

Brazil has about 1/5 of all land available for agriculture in the world, has the world’s largest renewable fresh water resources, and the countries climate allows farmers to have up to three growing cycles per year – no other place on earth can match Brazil for its potential food production.

Brazil will also very likely be the world’s largest potash importer in 2011.

Verde is developing fertilizer products from its at surface potash rich rock concessions and is in advanced stages of production planning. The company targeting a feasibility study in 2012.

  Terraco Gold Corp. TSX.V – TEN

Terraco’s Almaden low-sulphidation epithermal gold project is in western Idaho. It’s hot springs related and is a very near surface system. Almaden is very similar to deposits like Hollister and The Ken Snyder/Midas mine.

There are 950,000 ounces of Measured, Indicated, and Inferred 43-101 compliant resources. There are 887 drill holes and some of the mineralization outcrops – the bulk of the deposit lies within 100 meters (300 feet) of surface.

Conclusion

Each of the aforementioned companies has, in this authors opinion, enormous upside potential as they make their way down the development path towards a mine.

In the junior resource sector the most risk, the longest wait and the biggest payoff is in the true Greenfield plays, next on the downside of the risk scale are the post discovery resource definition plays and then come the plays with the least risk, those further down the development path with compliant resources and advanced studies. Only you can decide the level of risk you can tolerate and how much patience you have to sit while developments, the story, plays out.

No matter your level of risk and where you choose to invest your money always remember investing in juniors means an investment in people. This is a people game long before it becomes a geological one. Share structure, the acquisition of quality projects, the development of said projects in a timely cost efficient manner and higher priced financings all flow from, and to, management. This game isn’t hard – get behind quality management teams early, let them go to work for you and build something of value. Have the patience and “stomach” to ride out the volatility, you need to give the story time to play out.

If real estate is location, location, location then junior resource companies are people, people, people. When considering an investment into a junior resource company, the major consideration – people, should be on your radar screen. Are they on yours?

If not, maybe they should be.

Richard (Rick) Mills

[email protected]
www.aheadoftheherd.com

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Richard is host of Aheadoftheherd.com and invests in the junior resource sector. His articles have been published on over 300 websites, including: Wall Street Journal, SafeHaven, Market Oracle, USAToday, National Post, Stockhouse, Lewrockwell, Uranium Miner, Casey Research, 24hgold, Vancouver Sun, SilverBearCafe, Infomine, Huffington Post, Mineweb, 321Gold, Kitco, Gold-Eagle, The Gold/Energy Reports, Calgary Herald, Resource Investor, Mining.com, Forbes, FNArena, Uraniumseek, and Financial Sense.

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Legal Notice / Disclaimer

This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Richard Mills has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified; Richard Mills makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Richard Mills only and are subject to change without notice. Richard Mills assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, I, Richard Mills, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.

Richard Mills owns shares of Cangold TSX.V – CLD and Terraco Gold Corp. TSX.V – TEN           

All company’s mentioned in this report are advertisers on Richards website aheadoftheherd.com