Oil: The outlier commodity

Eric Reguly, writing in Saturday’s Globe and Mail, shines a light of hope on those who have seen the value of their portfolios shredded in the last six months by falling energy stocks. Beginning with the observation that oil, like most commodities, is currently priced considerably higher than the long-term trend for commodities (most commodities when plotted on a 100-year trend have actually declined 1% a year in real terms), Reguly asks whether oil is due for a “significant correction.”

Factor in China, supply-demand fundamentals, resource nationalism, the lack of viable substitutes, and population growth in oil-producing countries, and the answer, says Reguly, is a resounding “no”. Link to the column here