China copper smelters bracing for shortage of vital scrap metal
Around 30% of China’s refined copper production used scrap metal as a feedstock in 2023.
As copper prices reach greater highs, Forbes says that manufacturers are looking at substitutes and choosing aluminum.
After the financial crisis in 2008, copper descended to under $1.50/lb. In the last month it has traded over $4.50/lb, a 300% increase. Aluminum prices have also risen in the same time period, but more modestly.
Forbes says that if manufacturers switch, there could be long-term harm to copper producers like Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold, Codelco and Newmont Mining:
Aluminum is seen as a more cost-effective and feasible substitute for copper if the price of copper crosses the $3.5 per pound mark. [2] In the last 5 years, aluminum has already substituted 2-3% of the copper market, and this number will likely increase. Alcoa, the world’s leading aluminum producer, predicts that if copper prices continue to rise at the current pace, then aluminum could potentially substitute 20% of the global annual refined copper market.
Michael Allan McCrae wrote this story. You can contact him at [email protected] or @michaelmccrae.
