Copper price inching towards another all-time high

Copper moved within touching distance of record prices on Monday as the metals market continues to express concerns over Trump’s tariff policies.

The most-traded copper contracts in New York were two cents away from the all-time high of $5.20/lb. set nearly a year ago, before pulling back to around $5.12 by midday. Equating to about $11,288/tonne, the US copper price kept its high premium of approximately $1,500 over its London counterpart.

So far this year, the red metal — often viewed as a gauge of economic health — has surged over 27% amid the flurry of tariff announcements. The rally became more pronounced since US President Donald Trump signed an executive order last month to investigate the nation’s imports of the metal, which was a seen as precursor to the US including copper to its tariffs.

In anticipation of that, traders have begun moving significant amounts of the metal into US borders, leading to the surge in COMEX premiums over the LME. Analysts at trading group Mercuria estimate that about 500,000 tonnes of copper are on the way to the US, compared with normal monthly imports of about 70,000 tonnes.

The rally also coincided with the tightness seen in the copper market. Due to years of underinvestment and reduced refinery capabilities, there is a growing shortage of raw copper to meet global demand. Mercuria is predicting copper demand this year to outstrip supply by 320,000 tonnes, which, together with the draw of stock to the US, could leave many countries scrambling for the metal.

“We think there is something exceptional happening in the copper market,” said Kostas Bintas, the head of metals trading at Mercuria and former co-head of metals at Trafigura.

“Is it unreasonable to expect a copper price of $12,000 or $13,000? I’m struggling to put a number on it because this has never happened before,” Bintas said in a recent Bloomberg interview.

More recently, copper received a further boost in further stimulus measures announced by China, the world’s largest supplier and consumer.