Column: Copper’s early-year rally leaves investors unimpressed
Doctor Copper has started 2025 with a spring in his step after a year when the early bull party was followed by a prolonged hangover.
Chile, the world’s No. 1 copper producer, will boost its output of the red metal to 5.54 million metric tons in 2034, representing a 5.6% increase from 2023, state-run copper commission Cochilco said on Wednesday.
The Latin American nation produced 23.6% of the world’s copper in 2024, Cochilco said. That amount is expected to increase, with Chile’s hold over the industry representing a 27.3% share by 2034, it added.
Cochilco said it expected Chile to reach a peak production level in 2027, mining 6.07 million tons of copper that year. From there, annual output is expected to fluctuate at lower levels. The lowest point expected is in 2034, Cochilco said.
Cochilco previously had said it expected production of 6.43 million tons in 2034. The new forecast is due to an adjusted methodology that allowed for a more realistic estimate, Cochilco said.
Cochilco analyst Sergio Verdugo told a press conference that the dip would be due to aging mines. He also noted that, in a best case scenario, production could reach a maximum of about 7 million tons in 2034.
While Chile is expected to hold its spot as the top copper producer globally, Cochilco forecast that by 2034 the nation will be followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo with a 13.6% share of the market, and Peru with a 10.2% share.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo overtook Peru as No. 2 producer in 2023.
(By Fabian Cambero and Daina Beth Solomon; Editing by Sarah Morland and Kylie Madry)
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