Canadian precious metals miner Lundin Gold (TSX: LUG) has revised up its gold production guidance for the Fruta del Norte (FDN) underground mine in southeast Ecuador.
The company now expects to produce 475,000–525,000 ounces of gold in 2025, up from its 2024 target of 450,000–500,000 ounces. Cash operating costs are projected at $730–$790 per ounce of gold sold, while all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are estimated at $935–$995 per ounce.
Lundin also plans to allocate $75–$85 million for total sustaining capital in 2025, including 15,000 meters of drilling under its resource conversion program.
“The commissioning of the plant expansion project is going well, which is expected to increase plant throughput to 5,000 tonnes per day and to improve gold recovery,” chief executive Ron Hochstein said in the statement.
The Vancouver-based miner highlighted several investments that have enhanced operations at Fruta del Norte. A new dispatch system and reconfigured mill have created opportunities to debottleneck processes and boost average throughput to 5,500 tonnes per day starting in 2026.
“By maximizing the potential of FDN through our operational excellence program to increase efficiencies and reduce costs, combined with a strong gold price environment, we are confident in our ability to continue generating meaningful free cash flow,” Hochstein added.
Building on recent exploration success, Lundin is expanding its near-mine exploration program and plans to drill 65,000 meters. The company also unveiled a three-year greenfield exploration strategy targeting an unexplored 50,000-hectare land package as part of its regional program.
In 2026 and 2027, Lundin anticipates maintaining production levels in the range of 475,000–525,000 ounces. Costs are expected to increase slightly in 2026, alongside improved mill throughput, which is projected to climb from 5,000 tonnes per day in 2025 to 5,500 tonnes per day in 2026.
BMO analyst Brian Quast said that while Lundin’s three-year production guidance aligns with expectations, cost projections were higher than anticipated. He attributed the increases to elevated sustaining capital expenditures and higher metal prices, which affect royalties and employee profit-sharing.
The analyst downgraded the stock to market perform from market outperform, saying that the valuation was at, or near, a ceiling for a single asset producer.
Shares in the company fell around 4% on the news, and were last trading at C$34 each on Tuesday mid-afternoon. This leaves the miner with a market capitalization of C$8.2 billion ($5.8 billion)
Lundin Gold acquired Fruta del Norte in late 2014 from fellow Canadian miner Kinross Gold, which had to halt operations after failing to reach an agreement with Ecuadorian authorities on development terms.
Construction began in July 2017, and the first gold was poured in November 2019. Commercial production commenced in February 2020, making Fruta del Norte Ecuador’s first large-scale gold mine.
Later in 2020, Lundin approved an $18.6 million mine expansion.
Ecuador’s mining sector generated slightly over $2.4 billion in exports through September, according to the Ministry of Energy and Mines. This made mining the country’s leading non-traditional export sector, contributing 9.49% of exports and $704.79 million in taxes.
However, authorities expect a decline in mining exports by year-end due to the ongoing energy crisis, which has caused daily blackouts of up to 14 hours since mid-September. These blackouts have disrupted mining production.
Last year, Ecuador set a historical record for mining exports, reaching $3.324 billion—19% more than in 2022.
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