Column: Study Group has a sobering message for copper bulls
There's no shortage of copper, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), which has just updated its supply and demand forecasts.
Chile’s Codelco is planning to invest nearly $6 billion next year in its pipeline of projects, about $1 billion more than the state-owned mining giant had previously estimated, its chairman Maximo Pacheco told Reuters on Monday.
Codelco is planning to spend about $4.7 billion this year in projects to upgrade its mines which include Chuquicamata and El Teniente mine with the world’s largest underground copper deposit.
The projects have been delayed for years due to cost overruns totaling billions, accidents and operational problems. They have failed to deliver a promised boost in production, according to the company’s own projections.
The final capital expenditure number for 2025 will be approved at a board meeting in December, Pacheco said.
“We know the company will increase its debt next year to continue to support the projects … the money we are spending as capex is very attractive in terms of its economics.”
Chile is the world’s largest copper supplier and Codelco accounts for just over a quarter of the country’s output. It is a major contributor to the country’s finances.
Codelco earlier in September purchased Enami’s 10% stake in Teck’s Quebrada Blanca mine in northern Chile for $520 million, which Pacheco said would be paid for with cash.
Pacheco said Codelco will produce 1.325 to 1.352 million tons of copper this year and that production should be higher next year, without giving a number.
Its production fell in 2022 and 2023.
“This is a matter of concern to us because we realized that copper is very important in today’s world for energy acquisition, enhancement of the infrastructure, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence with all the requirements of data centers.”
China remains a strategic market for Codelco as it is typically a deficit market and needs copper imports. Codelco is working on diversifying its markets, but Pacheco said “nothing will change dramatically in our portfolio”.
Pacheco said Codelco is open to collaborating on joint ventures with Saudi Arabia, which is aiming to invest in mining assets around the world.
(By Pratima Desai; Editing by Veronica Brown and David Evans)
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