A key Chinese coal industry group said on Wednesday it expects coal imports this year to reach at least 500 million metric tons, exceeding previous record highs and forecasts by market participants.
Coal imports in 2024 will hit that level if shipments continue to grow at the rapid pace seen so far this year, Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD) analyst Su Huipeng said.
That would be a 5% increase from last year’s 474.42 million tons, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, which was a record high.
The amount would also be at the top end of, or even exceed, forecasts by traders made during a coal import conference in March, when a representative of a major southern utility said he expected China’s coal imports to range between 450 million and 500 million metric tons this year.
Next year, CCTD’s Su said imports will remain near the 500 million ton mark or slightly lower.
The robust imports are despite lukewarm overall demand for coal.
In the first six months of the year, commercial coal consumption fell 1.4% to 2.29 million tons, CCTD analysts told a previous market seminar.
But domestic coal production has been relatively subdued as safety checks in key mining regions limited operations, with imports making up the difference. Output in the January-June period was 2.27 billion tons, down 1.7% compared with the same period last year, according to NBS.
(By Colleen Howe; Editing by Andrew Heavens and Miral Fahmy)
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