The global silver deficit is expected to rise by 17% to 215.3 million troy ounces in 2024 due to a 2% growth in demand led by a robust industrial consumption and a 1% fall in total supply, the Silver Institute industry association said on Wednesday.
Silver, which is used in jewellery, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels, as well as an investment, faces the fourth year of a structural market deficit.
“The deficit in the silver market helps to provide robust support and a strong floor for the price,” said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, which produced the World Silver Survey for the Silver Institute.
“The deficit fell by 30% last year, but in absolute terms – at 184.3 million ounces – it was still eye-watering. Global supply has been broadly steady at around the 1-billion-ounce mark, while industrial demand did incredibly well with 11% growth.”
Despite the shortage, visible silver inventories, as well as vast metal stocks held by individuals and investors, continue to protect the silver market from a squeeze for now.
“Identifiable silver inventories, as well as metal held off exchange, remain sizable. However, some of this silver may be tightly held, so it will be interesting to see, going forward, what impact ongoing deficits have on the market,” Newman added.
Stocks held in commodity exchange depositories and London vaults fell by 5% last year and amounted to nearly 15 months of global supply as of end-2023, the report said.
The bulk of the drop in reported stocks took place in China, which historically was a surplus market due to silver production from imported base metals concentrates. “However, the breakneck rise in local industrial demand (of 44%) is changing the local supply/demand and inventory dynamics,” the report said.
Spot silver prices, up 18% so far this year, touched $29.79 per ounce, their highest in the more than three years, last week amid a gold rally and strong copper prices.
(By Polina Devitt; Editing by Aurora Ellis)
2 Comments
Mrs.SilverBug
Maybe you can answer this, since you are referencing the bogus 2024 World Silver Survey – the creation of The Silver Institute and Money Metals, as to why they changed the historical figures for the 2024 report? The prior year numbers are different from what was reported in the prior year. The data is garbage, it looks like they wanted X% in their year over year change and made the numbers work to arrive at that. Why do they even bother, we know that demand for silver in the solar industry (which has grown at a much higher percentage than what the report is saying was consumed for photovoltaics). The amount of silver in solar panels is more not less, than in past production years, but damned if you could tell that from the crap report they just released. So disappointing. Go back to the drawing board, the report is garbage. It’s too bad, they had a chance to produce something that was actually accurate, but instead they will continue to protect the derrivitives markets and those holding short positions.
Kitalpha
Those are excellent observations, Mrs. Silverback. I am very surprised that there has been no response to your comment from anyone, particularly the Silver Institute. As for myself, I’ve been trying to get a handle on what the actual supply & demand numbers are, as well as physical supply remaining. It seems that the data available so far is somewhat obfuscated, and that the only conclusion that can be drawn from it is that a developing supply deficit has existed for some years. Some estimates say that over 500,000 metric tons ensuing to be mined worldwide, others say that nothing will be left to mine at the eve of this year. As for above ground supply remaining, the only indication of that given by Newman is that it is “sizable” (?). That sort of comment seems to be protecting the shorts, as you’ve mentioned. Why can’t Newman be less vague about such an important question, unless there is some (suppresive) financial interest operating behind the curtain? I would think, given the explicit ESG investment in alternative energy particularly as it pertains to future solar panel production, that there would be a bets handle on remaining above ground supply than simply a vague estimate of “sizable”.