Iron ore weakness to continue into 2025 and beyond, says Fitch Solutions’ BMI
Looking beyond 2024-2025, BMI analysts maintained their view that iron ore prices will likely follow a multi-year downtrend.
A ban on tin mining in areas controlled by Myanmar’s ethnic minority Wa militia launched on Aug. 1 is expected to dampen China’s tin smelter output in the second half of 2023, the International Tin Association (ITA) said on Thursday.
Smelters in China ensured enough immediate supply by stockpiling the metal ahead of the ban but, according to ITA, the suspension is likely to last for longer than the initially expected period of one to three months.
“Until Wa State resumes normal production, China smelting raw material supply is expected to gradually decrease, making it challenging to return to the production levels experienced in the first half of this year,” ITA said in a statement, giving no figures.
China sources over half of its import needs in tin concentrate from Myanmar, where the self-declared Wa State accounts for two thirds of production.
As Wa State is committed to the policy enforcement, reopening of mines may take longer, and the market’s initial expectation that processing of stockpiles could still go ahead “appears to have been quashed by the ban on ore transport”, ITA added.
There are currently 2 million metric tons of mined ore, equal to about 5,000-6,000 tons of tin concentrate, stockpiled in the region, while an additional 1,500 tons of tin ore are awaiting clearance at the local port, according to the association.
Benchmark three-month tin prices on the London Metal Exchange were up 0.9% on Thursday, while all other base metals were down.
(By Polina Devitt; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Susan Fenton)
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