Copper exports signal Chile is leaving woes behind

Mining trucks at Codelco’s Chuquicamata copper mine in Chile. (File image)

At first glance, the latest copper numbers out of Chile appear to fit the recent narrative of supply-side disappointments. A closer look, however, suggests output may be improving in the top-producing nation.

While revenue from shipments fell 2.3% in May from April, according to central bank data released Wednesday, average copper prices slid more the 6% in the same period, signaling volumes probably rose. The year-on-year comparison is even more promising, with revenue up almost 7% despite a steep drop in prices.

The data suggest Chilean production may be stabilizing after a series of project delays, mine-specific setbacks and plant maintenance. That follows monthly data showing Peruvian output rising sharply and the Congo’s giant Kamoa-Kakula mine continuing to ramp up.

Stronger mine supplies — coupled with fragile Chinese demand — help explain why warehouse inventories are at seven-month highs.

(By James Attwood)

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