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A study by Germany-based Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change found that 50% of the coal-fired power plants that were planned to come online in the next few years will fail to do so.
The article, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, draws on a scientific survey of international experts.
In a systematic search process, the research team identified 29 experts from 10 countries that account for 90% of the new coal-fired power plants under construction or officially planned: Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Laos, Mongolia, Pakistan, Turkey, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe. The experts were contacted in the autumn of 2021 to provide expertise for their own country and, to an extent, for other countries.
The responses show that the reduction in future coal investments negotiated with Vietnam and Indonesia corresponds more or less to what had been expected among experts anyway. On the other hand, the likely implementation of the announced coal-fired power plants varies greatly across countries: according to the forecast, the most cancellations are in Bangladesh and Mongolia, and the least in China.
The research team also asked about the reasons for plan changes. In addition to technical and commercial aspects, the political economy of coal, that is, consideration of regional jobs, tax payments or influence of the coal industry, also play an important role.
“Planning and even construction of new plants may be put on hold if, for example, changes occur in finance, national energy strategies, or costs of renewable energies. We shed light on the baseline and thus the level of ambition of past and future coal agreements,” Jan Steckel, co-author of the paper, said in a media statement.
Steckel pointed out that since 2021, the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), representing countries in the Global South and wealthy industrialized countries, have been negotiating aid programs for phasing out coal-fired power generation. For South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, initial deals worth billions have already been struck.
Overall, the experts assume that in the coming years and decades, around 215 gigawatts of new coal-fired power plant capacity will be installed in the 10 countries examined.
The study also looks at what this would mean for the climate.
“In three-quarters of the scientific climate policy scenarios with only 1.5 degrees of global heating, coal use worldwide is down to zero by 2050,” Lorenzo Montrone, lead author of the paper, said.
“Our study shows how important it is to have international support to phase out coal and develop alternatives. One way to deal with the newly built plants would be to limit their lifetime to 15 years. If that succeeded, the 1.5-degree limit would still be well within reach.”
