The global tin market is largely driven by producers in Indonesia, China and Peru – the world’s biggest tin markets. The production of the silverly, malleable metal – used for things like steel-plating – has been in decline in these markets, in part because poor weather has challenged operating conditions and undermined transport. This has led to supply constraints, especially during the second half of 2010. At the same time, some production is being withheld from the export market thanks to dwindling inventories, according to a recent Commerzbank report.
These growing supply constraints will continue into 2011, the bank’s analysts said, in part because because producer stockpiles are largely exhausted. That will have a knock-on effect on exports.
At the same time, Canada’s Adex Mining says the medium-term outlook for tin is positive, which is a good thing, given ongoing efforts to bring its Mount Pleasant mine into production by 2012.
“Economic forecasts show that tin demand will rise sharply, due mainly to expansion of the solder and tin-plate markets in Asia. Some reports predict that tin reserves will plummet within a few decades due to high demand. Other sources, including the International Tin Research Institute, believe that supplies will last longer, particularly given the surge in tin recycling,” the company says on its website.
Having said that, tin market variables are, by their very nature, changing; a 2010 U.S. government report says major tin-consuming countries are moving to new, lead-free solders that usually contain greater amounts of tin than leaded solders.
And while there has been some pricing pressure over the past 18 months or so, “tin producers continued to respond to the higher tin prices of recent years with tin mine and tin smelter openings and expansions, including ones in Australia, Bolivia, Canada, and Thailand. Tin exploration activity increased, especially in Australia and Canada. In some countries, like Bolivia, old tin tailings were being evaluated for reclamation of tin,” the report states.