Iron ore weakness to continue into 2025 and beyond, says Fitch Solutions’ BMI
Looking beyond 2024-2025, BMI analysts maintained their view that iron ore prices will likely follow a multi-year downtrend.
Despite recent warnings indicating the coal industry outlook is quickly deteriorating, Glencore Xstrata (LON:GLEN) is going full-speed with its plans to boost production of the fuel.
The miner and trading house giant is expected to spend more on coal than any of its three closest competitors, BHP Billiton (ASX:BHP), Rio Tinto (LON:RIO) and Anglo American (LON: ANGLO), reports Bloomberg.
In South Africa alone, Glencore Xstrata is poised to invest close to US$100 million in new developments expected to supply nearly 60 million tonnes of coal per year.
Meanwhile BHP, the world’s largest mining company, Rio and Anglo have put all new coal investments on hold, sold mines or paused others.
A mounting number of analysts are questioning the wisdom of investing in the commodity. “Earning a return on incremental investment in thermal coal mining and infrastructure capacity is becoming increasingly difficult,” said Goldman Sachs earlier this year.
For others, CEO Ivan Glasenberg’s move makes total sense. “This is a classic counter-cyclical acquisitive strategy that Ivan Glasenberg has made his name in,” mining analysts Paul Gait told Bloomberg.
Global coal consumption is currently rising at an average rate of 1.3% per year, and the growth is primarily driven by demand from China, India, and other non-OECD countries.
Recent research suggests that coal could potentially challenge oil as the world’s top energy source by the end of the decade.
Twenty five years ago coal accounted for a quarter of primary energy production and, in 25 years time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reckons it will still account for 25-30% of the energy mix, even with all the climate change measures.
3 Comments
student
Not terribly surprising. For all the hoopla surrounding coal as the “new tobacco” one can’t simply replace the billions in infrastructure suited to it. China cannot turn on a dime and replace 60% of its energy or whatever it is within even a decade.
Poponet
If we turn from global warming to global cooling like some russian scientists are saying based on solar cycles, coal will be more popular than ever.
frankinca
Student should be at the head of the class. Underdeveloped countries will depend on coal for a long time, for a stationary fuel source. More BTU’s per Kgm, other than uranium the energy source of the far future.