Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
Coal is dead. Coal mining is a sunset industry. Donald Trump is crazy if he thinks he can revive Big Coal. While all these statements have become part of global consciousness when it comes to the future of the much-maligned fossil fuel, a report by Urgewald, a Berlin-based environmental group, casts doubt on at least the first two assertions.
Citing data gleaned from the world’s biggest developers of coal-fired power plants, Urgewald found that of all the new coal generation expected to go online over the next decade, Chinese companies will build nearly half of it. Specifically, that means 700 new coal plants, with most to be built in China, and about a fifth outside the country, according to figures provided by Urgewald and reported by the New York Times:
Overall, 1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries, said Urgewald, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 per cent.
The fleet of new coal plants would make it virtually impossible to meet the goals set in the Paris climate accord. Electricity generated from fossil fuels such as coal is the biggest single contributor globally to the rise in carbon emissions, which scientists agree is causing the earth’s temperatures to rise.
Shanghai Electric Group, one of the country’s largest electrical equipment makers, has announced plans to build coal power plants in Egypt, Pakistan and Iran with a total capacity of 6,285MW – almost 10 times the 660MW of coal power it has planned in China.
The astounding numbers go against the trend that has been happening throughout the year in China, where dangerously high pollution levels have forced the closure of hundreds of coal mines and a curtailment of steel mill output. Examples of China’s domestic aversion to coal include:
17 Comments
Altaf
There are two different statements in the first two paragraphs of this article.
Coal is dead, coal mining is sunset industry is one. The whole world is building 1600 coal power plants. This is another.
With so many coal power plants in the pipeline, how can coal mining be sunset industry?
This is the line talked by environmental groups. On one hand they wish coal to be dead, on the other hand they are worried that the world is building 1600 coal power plants.
From your own article, I can tell you that coal is not yet dead but is a sustaining industry. Suppose you are the one building a coal power plant. Suppose you are planning your power plant in the next decade (as per your article), how long you prefer to run it? not for a year or two. It will run for at least 3 or 4 decades to recover the costs and count the profits. That means if power plants are built by 2027 and if it runs till 2067, it creates a secure demand for coal mining.
If you add other coal demands like coking coal for steel blast furnaces, graphite electrodes for aluminum smelters and many other coal uses, it can never go out suddenly as wished by environmental groups.
I do not profess polluting the world but the fact remains that coal will sustain for a long time.
At the most, they may switch to other feedstock like natural gas. But gas has its own set of problems. There is no spot availability, all gas has to be sourced on long term contracts which is risky considering the fluctuations.
Fern
non-polluting coal-based electricity a new concept ,
a new industrial success because there is 500 years of coal under the ground
.
Steve_Ohr
There is no such thing as clean coal.
1. Coal mining destroys huge tracts of land, this is what coal mining looks like in Appalachia:
http://www.mountainroadshow.com/gallery/ky_mtr/002.jpg
2. Coal miners suffer from black lung disease, cases of which just doubled in the US.
“Inside an Appalachian Coal Legacy: Black Lung”
http://wvpublic.org/post/inside-appalachian-coal-legacy-black-lung#stream/0
3. Burning coal leads to a vast amount of air pollution.
“The Other Reason to Shift away from Coal: Air Pollution That Kills Thousands Every Year”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-other-reason-to-shift-away-from-coal-air-pollution-that-kills-thousands-every-year/
4. The waste from burning Coal, the ash, is toxic and is leaching toxins into our waterways:
“These toxic coal ash pits are leaking into Indiana’s water”
http://www.indystar.com/story/news/2017/09/24/ipl-duke-coal-ash-contaminants-polluting-indiana-waterways/597873001/
jmcmil
A quote from the article reads:
“Electricity generated from fossil fuels such as coal is the biggest single contributor globally to the rise in carbon emissions, which scientists agree is causing the earth’s temperatures to rise”
In my opinion, based on the scientific data from ice core records taken in Greenland and in Antarctica, carbon emissions have no connection with rising temperatures. CO2 is not a pollutant. Looking at the past few thousand years no connection exists between global temperatures and CO2 levels
Emissions from coal fired power plants do however need to be controlled with clean coal technology to minimise other gases that are pollutants.
Caution is required when using widely published scientific reports, which are used to support implementation of carbon taxes to support the wasteful practices of socialist governments. Scientists are paid to generate data to support a preconceived political agenda that is anything but scientific.
The sun is the driver of fluctuations in climate!
Shereni Mazhambe
Noble idea.If you are also interested in investing in Zimbabwe on coal,gold,chrome and other minerals, get in touch with Shercharl Mines on email; [email protected]/[email protected]/ mobile;+263775844144/+263719844144
Steve_Ohr
Yes, there are lots of coal plants on the books. No, the vast majority won’t be built.
China’s coal fleet is currently operating at just 46% of capacity, they may have a lot of plants, but they don’t keep them running. Meanwhile, they are installing *massive* amounts of solar and wind.
Actual global coal use has been falling for 3 years now:
Feb 28, 2017
“China coal consumption falls for third year running”
http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/02/28/china-carbon-co2-emissions-coal-oil-energy-2016/
June 13, 2017
“World Coal Production Just Had Its Biggest Drop on Record”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-13/coal-s-era-starts-to-wane-as-world-shifts-to-cleaner-energy
Steve_Ohr
Coal is dead, here’s why:
1. A recent Moody’s analysis shows basically the entire Midwest coal fleet is more expensive than wind. http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2017/03/moody-s-wind-could-squeeze-out-coal-even-with-changing-political-climate.html
2. Wind and Solar are now cheaper than coal, and are taking roughly ~2% of the market every year, that means coal and gas are competing over a shrinking pie. And that will only increase as costs continue to fall (the cost of solar fell 22% last year). https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/25/cost-of-solar-power-vs-cost-of-wind-power-coal-nuclear-natural-gas/
“The Wind Boom: Generators Moving to Wind because of Economics”
https://www.oilandgas360.com/wind-boom-generators-going-wind-economics/
3. Demand in the market is for renewables. Most of the Fortune 500 have renewable mandates now, and hundreds of cities as well. So even in red-states, there’s lots of demand for renewables: https://cleantechnica.com/2017/04/26/fortune-500-companies-accelerating-renewable-energy-targets/
4. No less than *46* coal units at 25 locations are already slated to close in the next two years: http://ieefa.org/ieefa-research-brief-coal-decline-blow-blow/
And since that report was written, many more coal plant closures have been announced. There are 8 new coal closures totaling 8.6 GW announced in 2017 so far
“U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT CLOSURE ANNOUNCEMENTS IN 2017”
http://numerical.co.in/numerons/collection/58d048864e976264035a1e35
5. Large numbers of natural gas plants are being built which will shut coal out of the market:
“Surging gas-fired power generation in PJM region will force more coal plant closures”
https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2017/05/10/surging-gas-fired-power-generation-in-pjm-region-will-force-more-coal-plant-closures-report-says/
6. Globally, the picture is much the same. Coal use globally is falling now, it was down 1.7% in 2016 alone:
“Global Coal Consumption Falls 1.7 Percent, Production Shows Record Decline”
http://www.power-eng.com/articles/2017/06/global-coal-consumption-falls-1-7-percent-production-shows-record-decline.html
larry w
Wheres the proof of these plans? If its true its still insane.
Wayne Waters
Reduce the “population” in the World and we won’t need all these Coal Power Plants!
xoddam
http://www.monbiot.com/2009/09/29/the-population-myth/
klgmac
Expensive electricity generated by alternative sources is already costing some people their jobs and is forcing others into energy poverty. It’s truly a crime against humanity.
Tom Aaron
China produces more vehicles than Europe and the Americas combined. These are built from steel produced with coal. India will soon be the world’s second largest vehicle producer.
These are internal combustion engine vehicles that are fueled by oil. China produces more vehicles in 2 hours than Tesla in a year…but who do hear more of?
The increase in coal power every year in the world is greater than the combined increase in solar and wind.
Folks need a reality check.
Herman A Pope
In the article this was written: which scientists agree is causing the earth’s temperatures to rise.
Actually real scientists are skeptical and do not agree.
Those consensus people are not any kind of scientists.
Temperature data has not risen since 1998. Only flawed model output shows warming.
xoddam
Except the numbers are exaggerated tenfold.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/16/world-going-slow-coal-misinformation-distorting-facts
Deep State
Fact: half of the coal plants in the United States have been closed, or have been scheduled for closure, since the year 2010. Coal isn’t dead yet, but it’s terminally ill.
Geoff
You really are a character Steve_Ohr.
Until there is a viable replacement for Fossil Fuels the basket of fossil fuel energy solutions will continue to underpin energy use world wide.
Solar and Wind can never do why fossil fuel does. The only threat to coal energy are other fossil fuel
solutions.
There is endless supplies of fossil fuels and their use will only decline when there are technology breakthroughs that provide a better solution to fossil fuels. Likely long term solutions will be Hydrogen and fission which will naturally make solar and wind obsolete.
You do realise the failure of solar and wind in Germany and hence their development of new coal fired generation… including Lignite Generation.
The sheer grunt of fossil fuels, their superb storage and transport characteristics cannot be matched by the compromised and clumsy solar and windmills.
Chalk and Cheese Steve.
Chalk and Cheese
Gordon Chamberlain
It is wise to realize plan A often does not go off as planned